Wage and competition channels of foreign direct investment and new firm entry

Using a rich data set of the Dutch manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2010, we investigate the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic new firm entry. The emerging empirical literature has focused on the direct relationship between FDI and entry, but has not explored the mechanisms behind the observed effect. Drawing on a simultaneous equations model, our analysis features both the direct effect of FDI as well as indirect effects through two channels: industry competition and wages. We estimate the parameters through 3SLS and take into account the endogeneity of competition and wages with respect to entry. Our results show that there is a significant negative direct effect of FDI on entry. At the same time, FDI decreases competition and increases wage levels, which then impact entry positively and negatively, respectively. The total effect of FDI is negative, but small and virtually disappears after one year. Policy implications are discussed.

     

How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

Subjective Well-Being Around Retirement

This paper studies the effect of both retirement and unemployment on life satisfaction, using subjective satisfaction indicators from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Moreover, we analyze how accurate individuals anticipate changes in satisfaction around retirement, as well as the correlation between the forecast error in life satisfaction and the labor market status. Being unemployed has a significant negative effect on life satisfaction; (in)voluntary retirement on the other hand has no significant effect on life satisfaction. A new finding is that unemployed individuals underestimate future life satisfaction. That is, their current labor market status has temporary negative effects on well-being, but, after 5 years, individuals are happier with their life than previously anticipated. We find no effects of (in)voluntary retirement on the forecast error.     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between Canada and Mexico

While it has long been assumed that exchange-rate volatility introduces a level of uncertainty that helps reduce trade flows, this need not be the case for particular country pairs or for specific products. This study examines the case of trade between Canada and Mexico—two members of the highly integrated North American market. Trade flows are examined for a number of specific products using the “bounds testing” cointegration approach over the period from 1973 to 2006. Relatively few industries see a long-run reduction in trade volumes due to volatility. This indicates that multinational producers in these integrated markets might be able to hedge against exchange-rate risk. Since major Mexican exports appear to see the largest reductions, Mexico might have a stronger incentive to reduce the volatility of the peso.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.

Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world

Exchange rate volatility is argued to affect the trade flows negatively and positively. Indeed, empirical studies that have addressed the issue have supported both effects. These studies have used aggregate trade flows data either between one country and the rest of the world or between two countries at the bilateral level. Studies that have disaggregated trade data by industry are rare. Thus, we extend the literature by looking at the experiences of 66 American industries that trade with the rest of the world using monthly data. In most cases, trade flows are not affected by GARCH‐based volatility of the real effective exchange rate of the dollar.     

Industry trade between Canada and Mexico: Will a weakening peso help Mexican manufacturing in the long run?

Mexico has longed served as one of Canada's major trade partner, but the plunging peso has had drastic effects across North America. This study investigates the bilateral trade relationship between Canada and Mexico for 27 individual industries, from 1973 to 2006. Cointegration analysis shows that overall sensitivity to the real exchange rate is weak, but that the trade balances of certain manufacturing industries do indeed improve after a currency depreciation. The “J-curve” effect is present for certain electrical and mechanical industries, suggesting that the recent decline of the peso may currently be having a negative impact on Mexican trade—but that it might eventually be beneficial, particularly for the Machinery and Transport Equipment sector.