The law of promotion with prize fund --The most successful strategy in the current worldwide economic crisis

Each company has to reopen different new methods and means in order to maintain high degree of competitive power on the market in the period of economic crisis today. The described and developed method and procedure by the author give every company concrete decisions to reach a better competitive power on the market in the globalization and mostly in the economic worldwide crisis today. The described method sand procedures below was developed by the author 1993 as a president of consulting company ＂D ＆ M Dobrev Consulting House＂ for analysis, trading.     

Size (and competition) among organizations: modeling scale‐based selection among automobile producers in four major countries, 1885–1981

Based on previous empirical research, size is perhaps the most powerful explanatory organizational covariate in strategic analysis. We suggest that theoretical arguments about size be examined carefully to specify models with explicit comparison sets and with mechanisms linking size and underlying processes to outcomes. We illustrate the approach here by advancing arguments about scale competition within an organizational population. In this effort, we feature a theoretical model of scale‐based selection, which posits that a firm's chances of survival decrease with its aggregate distance from larger competitors on a transformed size gradient. The model assumes that the appropriate comparison set consists of all contemporaneous similar organizations competing on the basis of scale and operating in a localized geographic setting. We argue that aggregate distance of a focal firm from larger other firms (a specific form of relative position in the size distribution) reflects the extent to which it can capitalize on potential competitive advantages of scale emanating from economic, political, and social processes. Analyzing the mortality rates of large organizations across the entire histories of automobile industries in four major countries provides support for the theory. We discuss the general implications of our findings for strategic and organizational analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Competing in the looking‐glass market: imitation,resources, and crowding

I examine two dominant processes of organizational interdependence—imitation and resource competition—and develop a theory that integrates predictions about firms' propensity to change market locations based on both. The cornerstone of the model is the argument that both processes operate concurrently and are driven by the departure of peer firms from a shared resource space. I also argue that the imitation effect, which reflects shared perceptions and interpretations among ecologically proximate peers, hinges on the competitive intensity faced by each individual organization in its market location. Analyses of U.S. automobile manufacturers' moves between the industry's three main market segments confirm the predictions of the theory and point to the merits of using an ecological approach to the evolution of market segmentation and the formation of industry structure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers

We make use of a new database on daily currency fund manager returns over a three-year period, 2005–2008. This higher frequency data allows us to estimate both alpha measures of performance and beta style factors on a yearly basis, which in turn allows us to test for persistence. We find no evidence to support alpha persistence; a manager’s alpha in one year is not significantly related to his alpha in the prior year. On the other hand, there is substantial evidence for style persistence; funds that rely on carry, trend or value trading or with a long/short bias toward currency volatility are likely to maintain that style in the following year. In addition, we are able to examine the performance of managers that survive through the entire sample period, versus those that drop out. We find significant differences in both the investment styles of living versus deceased funds, as well as their realized alpha performance measures. We conjecture that both style differences and ineffective market timing, rather than market conditions, have impacted performance outcomes and induced some managers to close their funds.     

Theory of the degree of trust： Toward to the economy of trust The new paradigm

Each company has to reopen different new methods and means in order to maintain high degree of competitive power on the market. The theory of trust developed by the author on the ground of his observations of many years on the market and formed respectively in theory and laws and practices to be applied in the contemporary life of every company, acting on the market have been presented. The theory gives every company concrete decisions to reach a better competitive power on the market in the globalization. The described below theory of degree of trust was developed by Dobrev, M. as a president of consulting company ＂D＆M Dobrev Consulting House＂ （Dobrev, M., 1993）for analysis and trading.     

Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbor truncation

We propose two new jump-robust estimators of integrated variance that allow for an asymptotic limit theory in the presence of jumps. Specifically, our MedRV estimator has better efficiency properties than the tripower variation measure and displays better finite-sample robustness to jumps and small (“zero”) returns. We stress the benefits of local volatility measures using short return blocks, as this greatly alleviates the downward biases stemming from rapid fluctuations in volatility, including diurnal (intraday) U-shape patterns. An empirical investigation of the Dow Jones 30 stocks and extensive simulations corroborate the robustness and efficiency properties of our nearest neighbor truncation estimators.     

The law of increasing of the final price and the law of management of the final price in the practice in the today economic crisis

The two described economic laws which are developed by the author before 10 years are very important for the marketing process in the economic crisis nowadays. Different methods and procedures developed by the author on the ground of his observations of many years on the market and formed respectively in theory and laws and practices to be applied in the contemporary life of every company acting on the market in the today economic worldwide crisis have been presented.     

Evaluating absolute return managers

One traditional measure of investment performance, the information ratio (IR), is defined as the active return (alpha) divided by the tracking error (the standard deviation of the active return). Calculating an IR is straightforward when the benchmark for performance is a buy-and-hold standard like the S&P 500. For absolute return managers, however, the typical benchmark is zero, meaning that any excess return is classified as alpha and deemed to represent the return from active management or skill. In this paper, we argue that this standard approach confuses beta returns and alpha returns. The former can be earned by following generic strategies that are easily implemented and often replicated by ETFs, while the later are associated with more original or complex strategies that more genuinely reflect unique skills or expertise. We propose a new performance metric that strips out beta returns associated with investment-style factors. This approach leads to a new statistic, the alpha ratio, which can dramatically impact the relative performance rankings of managers and provide a clearer signal of manager skill.     

No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects,jumps and i.i.d. noise: Theory and testable distributional implications

We develop a sequential procedure to test the adequacy of jump-diffusion models for return distributions. We rely on intraday data and nonparametric volatility measures, along with a new jump detection technique and appropriate conditional moment tests, for assessing the import of jumps and leverage effects. A novel robust-to-jumps approach is utilized to alleviate microstructure frictions for realized volatility estimation. Size and power of the procedure are explored through Monte Carlo methods. Our empirical findings support the jump-diffusive representation for S&P500 futures returns but reveal it is critical to account for leverage effects and jumps to maintain the underlying semi-martingale assumption.