Earning the “Write to Speak”: Sell‐Side Analysts and Their Struggle to Be Heard

This paper explores the ways in which sell‐side (SS) financial analysts seek to position themselves advantageously within the wider field of investment advice in spite of widespread skepticism over the value that their forecasts and recommendations add to investment decisions. The field of investment advice has been characterized in recent years by a number of regulatory and technological changes that have forced SS analysts to reconstitute the ways in which they influence the investment decisions of buy‐side (BS) actors. Faced with existential threats, SS analysts have responded to the disruptive impact of technology and regulation by struggling hard to ensure that their services are still valued by fund managers. Key to this ongoing process is the recalibration of professional expertise, which previous research has alluded to but not explored in detail. Central to the persistence of SS analysts in processes of investment decision making are activities revolving around the production and use of analyst reports which, our findings indicate, are less valuable for their informational content than their role as “relational devices,” ascribing legitimacy to SS analysts and earning them an entry ticket to more substantive, value‐adding interactions with companies and BS actors. We also show that economic considerations in the area of investment advice are influenced by social ties, the motivations of various actors in the field, and their relative position vis‐à‐vis other actors. More generally, we contribute to the literature on professional projects by showing how professional groups are constantly engaged in attempts to reposition themselves in the social space, but that field‐level changes can restrict the outcomes of these strategies to mitigation rather than advancement for the professionals concerned.     

Splitting Accountability Hairs: Anomalies in the Adaptation of IFRS for SMEs in the UK and Ireland

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a significant shift in the financial reporting frameworks available in the UK and Ireland affecting entities of all sizes with the Financial Reporting Council issuing three financial reporting standards replacing the extant UK GAAP. This paper reports the results of a content analysis of 151 comment letters sent to the standard-setter in response to its policy proposal. The paper explains why the standard-setter stepped back from its controversial proposal to enforce IFRS for SMEs based on the absence of public accountability. Additionally, the standard-setter addressed all concerns positively apart from two, representing two anomalies. First, despite being opposed by the majority of the respondents, the standard-setter published a new framework for wholly-owned subsidiaries of listed companies allowing them to make substantially less disclosure. Second, the standard-setter is yet to respond to the call by the accounting profession and the Not-for-profit sector to publish a sector-specific framework.     

Manufactured Exports,Capital Good Imports,and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil

This paper examines the export-led growth hypothesis using data from two Latin American countries, Mexico and Brazil, in a production function framework. It addresses some of the limitations of existing methods of testing the hypothesis. Contrary to popular belief, we do not find any evidence to support the hypothesis. Imported capital goods appear to be very significant in the growth process of these two countries. To check the robustness of the results, this study uses two different cointegrating procedures to determine the number of cointegrating vectors, and three different methods to estimate the parameters of the long-run relations. The results are robust across estimation techniques. [F43, F14, O47, O54]     

Determinants of Capital Flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh

While Bangladesh remains steeped in staggering external debt, it is also concurrently witnessing a substantial outflow of domestic capital. This situation raises serious policy concerns for its development prospects. This paper applies the Bounds testing and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag procedures to confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between capital flight and its determinants, and to estimate the long-run and short-run behavior of capital flight from Bangladesh. The estimated results suggest that political instability is the single most significant cause of capital flight from Bangladesh, while increases in corporate income taxes, higher real interest rate differentials between the capital-haven countries and Bangladesh, and lower GDP growth rates also significantly contribute to capital flight.     

Exchange Rate Choices of Microstates

In this paper I first explain why most microstates (countries with less than two million inhabitants) have gained independence only in the last 30 years. Despite the higher costs and risks microstates face, their ability to better accommodate local preferences, combined with a more integrated world economy, probably explains why there are now more benefits to independence. I explain why microstates at independence have chosen either dollarization, currency board arrangements, or fixed exchange rates rather than more flexible forms of exchange rate systems. I then, using the Geweke‐Hajivassiliou‐Keane multivariate normal simulator, model empirically the determinants of each of the different fixed exchange rate regimes in microstates and analyze the policy implications.     

Occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh

The article looks into the determinants of occupational choices of working children in Bangladesh. Using data from 6668 Bangladeshi working children aged 5 through 14, the article estimates several binary and multinomial logit regressions, separately for boys and girls. The article confirms that most children work in the informal sector where formal sector’s jurisdiction and regulations are absent. Specifically, the article finds that children are least likely to work in the service occupation and are more likely to work in the textile sector. The findings highlight the diversity in the occupational distribution of child workers by gender and show how their individual and family characteristics influence occupational choices. The service sector, which comprises of mostly maids, is a hidden sector. This sector makes children vulnerable to abuse. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers need to come up with effective legislations that would protect the children who work in the ‘hidden informal’ sector.     

The Use of Valuation Models by UK Investment Analysts

This paper examines the use of valuation models by UK investment analysts. The study is based on, first, semi-structured interviews with 35 sell-side analysts from 10 leading investment banks and with 7 buy-side analysts from 3 asset management firms and, second, content analysis based on 98 equity research reports for FTSE-100 companies covered by the sell-side interviewees. We observe that analysts perceive the discounted cash flow (DCF) (and to some extent ‘sophisticated’ models in general) to have become significantly more important than prior survey evidence suggests, although we also find the (somewhat paradoxical) continued importance of ‘unsophisticated’ valuation multiples, notably the price/earnings ratio (PE). We find perceived limitations in the technical applicability of the DCF, which cause analysts to rely in practice upon valuation multiples and subjective judgement of whether the market price ‘feels right’. We also find that contextual factors, notably the analysts' need for their research to be credible to buy-side clients, cause the use of subjective, unsophisticated methods of valuation to be played down. Given the inherent flexibility of the DCF model, coupled with its ostensible credibility, it becomes the natural vehicle for conveying the analyst's research, even though it is very rarely relied upon to determine target prices and investment recommendations. We conclude that, while the literature has focused on the technical merits of alternative valuation models, analysts' actual usage of valuation models also requires an understanding of social and economic context and motivations.     

Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Worsen Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact on growth volatility for a sample of 170 countries over the period 1978–2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs might heighten exposure to shocks, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination and reduced risk of conflicts can also ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility. In addition, smaller economies benefit more from the reduced growth volatility associated with RTAs than larger ones. The nature of the RTA also matters as shallow agreements such as partial‐scope preferential trade agreements do not appear to have a significant effect on growth volatility, whereas free trade areas and customs unions do. Finally, in investigating the drivers of RTAs, the regression results confirm that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join an RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth.     

Economic liberalization and price response of aggregate private investment: time series evidence from India

Abstract.  This paper presents evidence on the effects of economic liberalization of 1991 on the price responsiveness of aggregate private investment in India. The wide ranging reforms are expected to increase the price response of private investment due to (i) the Le Chatelier effect, (ii) a higher price elasticity of demand for final goods, and (iii) possible relaxation of the credit constraint. The empirical results, based on alternative specifications, estimation methods, and sample periods, show a dramatic increase in the price response; the elasticity of investment with respect to the relative cost of capital has increased five times after the dismantling of the 'Licence Raj.'