Productivity Growth in the Chinese Economy by Industry and the Role of Foreign Capital

I. IntroductionIt is well known that China’s reform and open-up policy initiated in 1978 had an extremelylarge impact on the Chinese economy. This policy represented an about-face against thetraditional self-reconstruction strategy that China had maintained since the founding ofthe people’s Republic in 1949. Although China’s economy temporarily fell into confusionfor a few years after the Tian-an-men incident in 1989, China continued to record high GDPgrowth. Moreover, after Deng Xiao…     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility

This article examines option pricing performance using realized volatilities with or without handling microstructure noise, non‐trading hours and large jumps. The dynamics of realized volatility is specified by ARFIMA(X) and HAR(X) models. The main results using put options on the Nikkei 225 index are that: (i) the ARFIMAX model performs best; (ii) the Hansen and Lunde (2005a) adjustment for non‐trading hours improves the performance; (iii) methods for reducing microstructure noise‐induced bias yield better performance, while if the Hansen–Lunde adjustment is used, the other methods are not necessarily needed; and (iv) the performance is unaffected by removing large jumps from realized volatility.     

A Qualitative Analysis to Determine the Domains and Skills Necessary to Lead in Public Health

Leadership programs in public health have been declining in numbers since 2012. The decline in training programs could be due to the lack of outcome‐based results and the lack of a manageable set of standardized skills needed for public health leadership. A comprehensive study was completed in two phases to determine if the current model of public health leadership institutes is effective at generating outcome‐based results. The following paper will focus on the first phase of the study. The first phase included a qualitative analysis to determine the domains, definitions, and skills needed to lead. An analysis of the skills, domains, definitions, and traits included in five established and commonly used leadership models/theories in public health leadership development (Transformational, Servant, Appreciative, Collaborative, and Emotional Intelligence leadership) plus the National Public Health Leadership Development Network (NLN) Leadership for Community Health, Safety & Resilience Competency Framework was completed. Of the 161 different skills, definitions, traits, and/or competencies from the five leadership models and the NLN competency framework, 123 were determined to be related to one of six domains needed for leadership and were defined into 21 skills. The findings could lead to more uniformity in public health leadership development and evaluation.     

Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences

Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 listings of housing rents over the last 20 years. We start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications for aggregate price dynamics, closely following the empirical strategy proposed by Caballero (Caballero and Engel, 2007). We find that 90% of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the United States. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state-dependent but time-dependent. These two results indicate that both the intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are small, resulting in a slow response of the CPI for rent to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by 1% point during the bubble period, and lower by more than 1% point during the period following the burst of the bubble, if Japanese housing rents were as flexible as those in the United States.     

The Optimal Penal Code vs. Infinite Nash Reversion in Trade Liberalization

This paper derives Abreu's stick-and-carrot strategy optimal penal codes ( Journal of Economic Theory , 1986, 191–225 in a partial equilibrium model that has been widely used to examine trade liberalization. Unless the asymmetry between countries is significant, the optimal penal codes take a simple form. It is also shown that the difference between the most-cooperative pairs of tariffs supported by two schemes, the optimal penal code and infinite Nash reversion, depends crucially on the size of the surplus from exports that a deviating country forgoes when the other country places an embargo, rather than the (punitive) optimum tariff, on imports in the punishment.     

Is the development of the agro-processing industry pro-poor?: The case of Thailand

We examine how the development of the agro-processing industry contributed to poverty reduction in Thailand. The effects on farmers’ income are emphasized because most of the poor in Thailand are farmers. The development of the agro-processing industry could improve farmers’ income through two channels: (i) the purchase of agricultural products; and (ii) the employment of the poor farmers at factories. We show that the development of the agro-processing industry, which also played a leading role in the high economic growth of the Thai economy, contributed to poverty reduction through both of the two channels. It was hence pro-poor.     

Output-Inflation Trade-Off at Near-Zero Inflation Rates

The purpose of this paper is to provide new evidence about the cost of near-zero inflation using Japanese data. We test the hypothesis that the short-run Phillips curve becomes flatter as the rate of inflation approaches zero. In implementing the test, we pay special attention to how to control for other factors affecting the rate of inflation. First, we use the skewness of the distribution of relative-price changes as a measure of supply shocks. Second, we use information contained in the cross-prefecture Phillips curve to control for changes in the expected rate of inflation. Through a series of empirical analyses, we find evidences consistent with the hypothesis. In particular, we find that the estimated slope in the 1990s is smaller than before. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 304–326. Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan and Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E31, E50