Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

From rationality to hyperreality: paradigm poker

This paper, following McGoun's (1997) seminal article comparing the economy of financial securities to a hyperreal poker game, argues that finance and accounting researchers should take the “linguistic turn” that has rejuvenated theory and research in many, if not most, of the social science and humanities in recent decades. In general terms, this means following Ludwig Wittgenstein's language game paradigm rather than Karl Popper's scientific deductive hypothesis testing methodology. The paper illustrates this by drawing on some of Jean Baudrillard's' ideas, particularly his concept of hyperreality and his phases of the image theoretic.The paper presents a poststructuralist genealogical analysis of the radical ruptures and reformulation of the meaning attributed to the accounting sign of earnings over the feudal, counterfeit, production, and simulation eras. It concludes that, as with many other signs in contemporary society, the earnings sign no longer has any relationship with, nor does it any longer refer to, any real or intrinsic profit but instead floats ungrounded in today's financial economy.The paper recommends that researchers in finance and accounting adopt paradigms from literary theory, semiotics, linguistics, and semiology rather than continue to rely on economics-based theory, which has lost its power for explaining and predicting happenings in today's financial economy of self-referencing models and images.     

黑土地保护性耕作发展的制约瓶颈和突破路径

保护性耕作是东北黑土地保护利用的有效途径,是落实"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"战略的重要抓手。新世纪以来,黑土地保护性耕作经历了从农机主导向农机农艺融合发展的历程,呈现出技术结构集成化、推广主体多元化、应用主体规模化的发展趋势。同时,在黑土地保护性耕作发展过程中,面临着来自于农户认知、技术结构、土地规模、推广体系、补偿机制等方面的现实障碍。因此,需要从提升农户认知水平、加强先进适用的技术研发与集成、推进农业生产经营方式创新、构建新型农技推广体系、加强政策引导与法制建设等方面营造黑土地保护性耕作的发展之路。     

Short-time at-the-money skew and rough fractional volatility

The Black–Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time to maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power law. The volatility process of the model is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter less than half. The fractional Brownian motion is correlated with a Brownian motion which drives the asset price process. We derive an asymptotic expansion of the implied volatility as the time to maturity tends to zero. For this purpose, we introduce a new approach to validate such an expansion, which enables us to treat more general models than in the literature. The local-stochastic volatility model is treated as well under an essentially minimal regularity condition in order to show such a standard model cannot be dynamically consistent to the power law.     

新形势下黑胚小麦病及检验研究

黑胚小麦病又被称为小麦黑点病,是一种在小麦胚或其他部位出现变色的病害。文章主要论述了我国在新形势下对黑胚小麦病的研究及其流行规律和病因,同时阐述了新疆粮油产品质量监督检验站在应对黑胚小麦病上的检验措施。     

黑土典型区有机质高光谱预测模型

土壤有机质(SOM)是鉴别土壤肥力的重要指标,是土壤肥力的物质基础,其含量预测模型研究对于土壤肥力评价、土壤碳库估算、土壤资源利用与保护具有重要意义。该文以黑龙江省黑土带典型区为例,采集区域土壤样本,基于有机质含量与土壤反射率的定量关系,对光谱反射率进行一阶微分和倒对数的处理,建立偏最小二乘法模型(PLSR)、一元线性回归模型和多元线性逐步回归模型。结果表明:(1)土壤有机质敏感波段位于650-750nm。(2)通过比较建模样本与检验样本的决定系数(R2)和均方根误差(RMSE)的大小,得到反射率和倒对数处理后的数据最优模型都为PLSR模型,一阶微分处理后的最优模型为多元线性逐步回归模型。(3)PLSR模型的建模效果优于回归模型,但其预测效果却并不理想。该研究将为改进土壤理化参数、遥感反演、土地质量评价等工作方法提供理论与技术支持。     

Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela

PurposeWe test the informational efficiency of Venezuelan USD sovereign bond yields when the black market exchange-rate premium (BMERP) changes.DesignWe use a non-parametric, asymmetric, Granger causality test to test our hypothesis.FindingsWe find that the bond market with less than or equal to 5 years of maturity seems to be efficient when good news is released on the BMERP. However, this market is not informationally efficient, and when combined with unbiased bad news regarding the BMERP, arbitrage opportunities are created.Originality/valueCapital controls that restrict free exchange-rate mechanisms create arbitrage opportunities with negative news as opposed to positive news.     

Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models

In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black–Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based on Machine Learning, exploited together with binomial trees or with a closed form formula for integration. Moreover, these two methods solve the backward dynamic programing problem considering a Bermudan approximation of the American option. On the exercise dates, the value of the option is first computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value and then approximated by means of Gaussian Process Regression. The two methods mainly differ in the approach used to compute the continuation value: a single step of the binomial tree or integration according to the probability density of the process. Numerical results show that these two methods are accurate and reliable in handling American options on very large baskets of assets. Moreover we also consider the rough Bergomi model, which provides stochastic volatility with memory. Despite that this model is only bidimensional, the whole history of the process impacts on the price, and how to handle all this information is not obvious at all. To this aim, we present how to adapt the GPR-Tree and GPR-EI methods and we focus on pricing American options in this non-Markovian framework.     

卫生检疫的创始原因和发展进程

通过考证卫生检疫创始的原因和发展进程,得出检疫起源于中世纪黑死病时期,并且欧洲社会、经济、宗教、神学等方面因素的综合作用,促进了卫生检疫的产生;检疫的场所在历史上经过了多次变迁,其称谓也随着历史的发展而有所变化。卫生检疫的内容和制度随着历史发展和社会需要逐渐完善,时至今日,海港检疫已成为世界通用的检疫方式。     

Women,Ecology and Economics,edited by Ellie Perkins

This paper finds that black women earn 7 percent less than similarly skilled white women because of their race. Even within the same occupational category, black women earn 3 percent less than similarly qualified white women. Black women receive lower pay primarily due to occupational segregation and because they are rewarded with lower earnings than white women for equivalent levels of education and other human capital characteristics.