A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap

The paper proposes a framework for modelling cointegration in fractionally integrated processes, and considers methods for testing the existence of cointegrating relationships using the parametric bootstrap. In these procedures, ARFIMA models are fitted to the data, and the estimates used to simulate the null hypothesis of non-cointegration in a vector autoregressive modelling framework. The simulations are used to estimate p-values for alternative regression-based test statistics, including the F goodness-of-fit statistic, the Durbin–Watson statistic and estimates of the residual d. The bootstrap distributions are economical to compute, being conditioned on the actual sample values of all but the dependent variable in the regression. The procedures are easily adapted to test stronger null hypotheses, such as statistical independence. The tests are not in general asymptotically pivotal, but implemented by the bootstrap, are shown to be consistent against alternatives with both stationary and nonstationary cointegrating residuals. As an example, the tests are applied to the series for UK consumption and disposable income. The power properties of the tests are studied by simulations of artificial cointegrating relationships based on the sample data. The F test performs better in these experiments than the residual-based tests, although the Durbin–Watson in turn dominates the test based on the residual d.     

美国电影业的产业经济学分析

首先论述美国电影业的几个主要行业特征,进而分析美国电影业的产业结构。美国的电影业结构是六大主流制片公司与大量规模不等的独立制片公司并存。虽然当面临新企业进入的威胁时,六大主流制片公司采取了进入容纳政策,但由于美国电影业的经营特点,大多数独立制片公司最终不是倒闭就是被六大主流制片公司收购。     

The differing roles of success drivers across sequential channels: An application to the motion picture industry

In several product categories, it is typical to release products sequentially to different markets and customer segments. Conventional knowledge holds that the roles of various product success drivers do not differ significantly across these sequential channels of distribution. The authors examine sequential distribution channels within the motion picture industry and develop a model that proposes that such differences exist between a primary (short- and long-term theatrical box office) and a sequential (video rental) channel. The authors test their model with a sample of 331 motion pictures released in theaters and on video during 1999–2001 using partial least squares. Results reveal differences in the impact of success factors across channels. For example, cultural familiarity enhances box office success but relates negatively to video rental success, and distribution intensity and date of release enhance box office outcomes but have no impact on rental revenues. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau (tht@medien.uni-weimar.cie) is a professor of marketing and media research at Bauhaus-University of Weimar’s Media School and Honorary Visiting Professor of Movie Marketing in the Faculty of Management of Cass Business School, City University London. He has published articles in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Service Research, theInternational Journal of Electronic Commerce, theJournal of Interactive Marketing, Psychology & Marketing, and theJournal of Consumer Affairs, among others. He is author of the monograph Relationship Marketing, which has been translated into Chinese. He is member of the editorial board of three journals and serves as reviewer for theJournal of Marketing andMarketing Science. He has won eight Best Article and Best Paper Awards, including the Overall Best Paper Award of the 2005 American Marketing Association Summer Educators’ Conference and the 2002JSR Excellence in Service Research Award. Mark B. Houston (houstonmb@missouri.edu) (PhD, Arizona State University) is the David and Judy O’Neal MBA Professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia. His research on strategy, interfirm relationships, and innovation has been published in leading journals, including theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Consumer Research, Marketing Science, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theJournal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. He cochaired the 2005 American Marketing Association (AMA) Summer Educators’ Conference and served for two terms as vice president of the AMA’s Technology and Marketing Special Interest Group. Gianfranco Walsh (g.walsh@strath.ac.uk) received his MPhil degree from UMIST (England) and PhD (2001) and Habilitation (2004) degrees from Hanover (Germany). His research focuses on consumer behavior, corporate reputation, and e-commerce. He has presented numerous papers at international conferences. His work has been published in, among others, theAcademy of Marketing Science Review, the International Journal of Electronic Commerce, theJournal of Consumer Affairs, theJournal of Interactive Marketing, theJournal of Macromarketing, and theJournal of Marketing Management. He is the Chair of Marketing and Electronic Retailing at the Institute for Management, University of Koblenz-Landau.     

分数布朗运动环境下的美式看涨期权的定价方法

在分数布朗运动模拟算法基础上,提出了分数布朗运动环境下标的资产价格过程的一种数值模拟方法。然后应用于欧式和美式看涨期权定价。结果表明,该方法具有很快的收敛速度,而且基于最小二乘方法和偏最小二乘方法的美式看涨期权价格,都与对应的欧式看涨期权价格几乎完全一样。这恰恰验证了不支付红利的条件下,美式看涨期权不应该提前执行的理论论断。     

Inter-basin water transfers under uncertainty: Storage capacity and optimal guaranteed deliveries

This paper deals with water transfers between jurisdictions not claiming riparian rights to the same water source, and taking place through straightforward sales. Taking into account the uncertain nature of water surpluses, we investigate, within a partial equilibrium framework, the implications of a third party's provision of storing facilities upon the potential supplier's decision whether, and to what extent, it is worthwhile to guarantee a constant amount of water exports. The analysis suggests that there exists a minimum storage capacity below which the potential supplier will never find it profitable to divert a constant amount of water outside his boundaries; the greater the uncertainty about future surpluses and/or internal costs due to even occasional water shortages resulting from the water export commitment, the higher the required minimum storage capacity will be. Above this minimum, an increase in the capacity would be better for the surplus agent, but in a situation in which water surplus is expected to decrease over time, increases in storage capacity would make him willing to guarantee a smaller amount of water deliveries.This work has been carried out under the auspices of the European Science Foundation's research program Sharing fresh water resources in the Mediterranean region: An economic perspective. Previous versions have been presented at ESF workshops held at the Universities of Haifa, Padova and Crete. Financial support from MURST (funds 40% — 1992) is gratefully acknowledged. We wish to thank Nunzio Cappuccio, Haluk Akdogan, Karl Mäler, Mordechai Shechter, Naomi Zeitouni, and two anonimous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

无界时滞中立型系统(非Razumikhin型)的稳定性

本文利用 Liapunov 函数法,建立无界时滞线性和非线性中立型系统(非 Razumikhin 型)稳定性的简单判据。     

Simultaneous Estimation of Legal and Illegal Supply and Demand: The Case of Motion Pictures

Prior research into illegal goods has typically looked at one-way effects, such as illegal demand on legal demand. This research investigates a previously unexamined component of the market, illegal supply. The authors examine the supply and demand of legal goods and their illegal counterparts as a market system of four interdependent components. This research makes theoretical and empirical contributions by evaluating illegal supply in this system. Simultaneous equations estimate each market component on the others using data from the motion picture industry. The results find illegal supply has no effect on legal supply (movie screens), positive effects on illegal demand (piracy downloads), and some effect on legal demand (box office revenues). Timing effects highlight this: illegal supply has a positive effect on legal demand during a film’s opening week, but no effect post-launch. The other market components have positive effects on illegal supply (except legal supply, which is negative in the opening week). Additionally, illegal demand has a negative effect on legal demand during the opening week of release, but not in the subsequent weeks. This finding alleviates prior research tension as to whether piracy helps or hurts legal sales, as omitting illegal supply could result in biased estimates.