中国通货膨胀率持久性变化研究及政策含义分析

通胀率持久性在通胀率动态研究中备受学界的关注,并且直接影响现代货币政策传导机制的终解方程式。本文对我国通胀率持久性的统计特性做了严谨的计量检验和分析,应用“格点拔靴(自举)”中值无偏估计和Exp-Wald未知断点检验来捕捉我国物价波动持久性的特征。统计结果显示,通胀率持久性在高通胀时期走高,而在物价波动减小的20世纪90年代中后期显著减弱。我们讨论了这一发现对相关货币政策分析机制的含义。     

我国证券投资基金业绩的持续性研究

以上海证券交易所上市的10只同质的基金为样本,分三个阶段对基金业绩的持续性进行了实证分析,结果表明我国证券投资基金的业绩并不具有持续性.     

影响盈余信息含量的因素——来自A股的实证结果

研究中习惯用回报／盈余关系来表示会计盈余的信息含量。通过A股的实证结果发现，当时间窗口为公告日前后60关时，回报／盈余关系较显著；盈余的持续性越高，回报／盈余关系越显著；非线性的模型比线性模型的解释能力更强。但是模型总体的R2水平都较低，这可能是由于研究方法的缺陷、市场的非理性、盈余本身信息含量低等原因造成的。     

Comparative persistence and adherence with newer anti-hyperglycemic agents to treat patients with type 2 diabetes in the United States

Objectives: Non-adherence and non-persistence to anti-hyperglycemic agents are associated with worse clinical and economic outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study evaluated treatment persistence and adherence across newer anti-hyperglycemic agents (canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, sitagliptin, saxagliptin, linagliptin, liraglutide, or exenatide).

Methods: This retrospective cohort study of Truven Health Analytics Marketscan databases included adult patients with type 2 diabetes whose first pharmacy claim for a newer anti-hyperglycemic agent was between February 1, 2014 and July 31, 2014. Treatment persistence and adherence were assessed for 12 months after the first claim (post-index). Persistence was defined as no gap ≥90 days between the end of one pharmacy claim and the start of the next pharmacy claim post-index. Adherence used two definitions: proportion of days covered (PDC) and medication possession ratio (MPR). Multivariable analyses of non-persistence (hazard ratios) and adherence (odds ratios) were adjusted for baseline demographics, drug cost, clinical characteristics, and other anti-hyperglycemic agents.

Results: A total of 11,961 patients met all study selection criteria. Persistence rates at 12 months were significantly greater (p?p?=?0.83; PDC?=?0.79) and canagliflozin 300?mg (MPR?=?0.92; PDC?=?0.81) were greater than for the other index anti-hyperglycemic agents (MPR?=?0.33–0.75; PDC?=?0.33–0.72). Consistent results for treatment persistence and adherence were observed in multivariable analyses that were adjusted baseline characteristics.

Conclusions: Canagliflozin was associated with better treatment persistence and treatment adherence compared with other anti-hyperglycemic agents in real-world settings.     

依赖性与嵌入性：产学研合作创新持续性研究

作为合作创新的重要形式，产学研合作创新为资源整合、产业优化与经济发展作出了重要贡献。基于国家重点产业专利信息服务平台，以我国电子元器件产业产学研合作发明专利为数据来源，采用Logistic回归模型实证检验依赖性与嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性的影响。结果表明：在依赖性的3个要素中，地理邻近性对产学研合作创新持续性不具有显著影响，知识相似性和身份相似性均对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响；在嵌入性的3个要素中，结构嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性不具有显著影响，关系嵌入性和位置嵌入性均对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响。但是，当所有因素同时进入回归模型时，只有知识相似性和关系嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响，身份相似性和位置嵌入性的影响不再显著。     

Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns

The major contribution of this paper is to make use of generalized runs tests (Cho and White, 2011) to analyze the randomness, i.e. the lack of persistence, in both absolute and relative returns of hedge funds. We find that about 42% of the HFR universe exhibit iid absolute returns over the period spanning 2000 to 2012. These funds are mainly found in proportions within the Macro and Equity Hedge strategies. A similar result holds for relative returns. We also find that funds having non-iid returns often exhibit ARCH effects and structural breaks, with largest breaks located within financial crises. Also, only a small percentage displays persistence in their relative performance, 8.2% to 16.7% of the universe, mainly found in proportions within the Relative Value and Event-Driven strategies. The robustness of results is challenged by implementing the tests on a crisis-free period. We find similar results for absolute returns. For relative ones, differences appear across strategies and benchmarks, but still both ARCH and breaks are present. Our work contributes to the hedge fund literature in terms of methodology, portfolio allocation, and performance measurement.     

中国通货膨胀的动态特征研究

现有测度通胀惯性的常用模型是仅含自身滞后因子的自回归模型,该模型不能有效反映通胀预期和波动性对通胀惯性的影响。本文在自回归模型基础上,构建了一个包含通胀惯性、学习型预期和波动性特征的通胀动态模型。该动态模型从均值和波动项两个方面反映了我国通胀水平的动态变化趋势和特征。针对上述模型不能有效反映通胀状态体制变化的缺点,本文还引入Markov机制转换模型来测度我国通胀水平的状态转移特征。利用分位数回归方法下的自回归模型、本文构建的通胀动态模型以及Markov机制转化模型实证研究了我国通胀的动态特征。分析表明:我国通胀水平具有较强的惯性特征;通胀惯性的形成机理比较复杂,学习型预期只能部分解释通胀惯性;通胀水平的状态转移时间比较长;通胀水平与其波动性有着正向的关系。     

Contract length heterogeneity and the persistence of monetary shocks in a dynamic generalized Taylor economy

We develop the generalized Taylor economy (GTE) in which there are many sectors with overlapping contracts of different lengths. In economies with the same average contract length, monetary shocks will be more persistent when longer contracts are present. Using the Bils–Klenow distribution of contract lengths, we find that the corresponding GTE tracks the U.S. data well. When we choose a GTE with the same distribution of completed contract lengths as the Calvo, the economies behave in a similar manner.     

Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil

This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. The hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation. A theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. However, with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation. The degree of inertia is then compared for two periods: one without indexation (1945–1963), and one with indexation (1969–1985). Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period, allowing for price stickiness. The empirical results do not support the hypothesis.