R&D and performance persistence: Evidence from the United Kingdom

There is compelling evidence from both the United States and United Kingdom suggesting that R&D investment is positively related to operating and/or market performance. This study extends prior research on R&D and valuation by further examining the sustainability or persistence of operating growth and market performance as a result of R&D investments.We use a large dataset of U.K. companies during the period 1990–2003 and our findings confirm the relation between R&D intensity and consistent growth in Sales and Gross Income, but only in the cases when a firm needs to engage in R&D activity because of the industry in which it operates. Moreover, our evidence indicates not only a positive relation between R&D intensity and subsequent risk-adjusted excess returns among firms that engage in R&D as testified by prior literature, but we also show that R&D intensity improves persistence in excess stock returns: the highest R&D-intensity firms are found to earn higher risk-adjusted excess returns more consistently than the sample median return, compared to lower R&D-intensity firms, as well as firms with no R&D. We interpret this finding as consistent with at least some form of market mispricing.     

基于波动性-持续性的中国核心CPI测算及其评估

研究目标：基于波动性-持续性的核心通货膨胀测度方法是否适用于中国核心CPI的构建。研究方法：使用中国2001年1月至2015年12月的CPI相关数据,利用基于波动性-持续性的方法测算中国核心CPI,并与其他方法构建的核心CPI进行比较。研究发现：基于波动性-持续性的三重加权法（包括V-P-E法和T-RMSE法）构建的核心CPI是无偏的;三重加权法具有较强的追踪趋势通货膨胀的能力;在预测未来通货膨胀的能力方面,三重加权法具有较好的表现。总体来看,三重加权法是测算中国核心CPI的优良方法。研究创新：使用同时考虑波动性和持续性的方法构建中国核心CPI,并验证了其优良性。研究价值：基于三重加权法的核心CPI可作为测度中国核心通货膨胀的重要参考指标。     

Persistence of innovative activities, sectoral patterns of innovation and international technological specialization

In this paper, we focus on the role of persistence and heterogeneity of innovative activities at the level of the firm in determining the patterns of technological change in different industries and countries. We ask: are persistence and heterogeneity associated with higher degrees of concentration in innovative activities, stability in the ranking of innovators, and lower degrees of entry and exit in the population of innovators? Or, do the patterns of innovation depend on other variables like firm size and industrial concentration? Moreover, what are the relationships between the patterns of innovative activities, their determinants, and the technological specialization of countries? We compute indicators of persistence and heterogeneity using the OTAF-SPRU patent database at the firm level for five European countries over the period 1969–1986 for 33 technological classes. Then, we estimate the relationships between our indicators of the sectoral patterns of innovative activities and international technological specialization on the one hand, and our indicators of persistence, heterogeneity and market structure on the other. Results show that persistence and asymmetries are important (and strongly related) phenomena that affect the patterns of innovative activities across countries and sectors, while the role of market structure variables is less clear. Finally, international technological specialization is associated to a competitive core of persistent innovators.     

高管持股对创新可持续性的影响研究

企业创新活动一旦中断将会产生巨大的调整成本损失。因此,如何保持企业创新可持续性是企业创新研究的重要问题。结合委托代理理论,探索了企业高管持股对创新可持续性的影响,并进一步讨论了高管过度自信与产权性质的调节作用。使用2003-2014年中国A股制造业上市公司面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明：高管持股对企业创新可持续性具有显著正向影响,高管过度自信则弱化了两者间正向关系,而相对于非民营企业,民营企业高管持股对创新可持续性的正向作用更强。同时考虑两种情境效应的综合影响时,在民营企业中高管过度自信的负向调节作用更强。最后,考虑了遗漏变量带来的“选择偏差问题”和内生性问题,采用基于Kernel匹配得分法的反事实检验,为实证结果提供了稳健性证明。     

On the persistence of job creation in old and new firms

We analyze the persistence of new jobs in new and old firms. This measure assesses the sustainability of job creation in different circumstances. We find that new jobs in Austria last significantly longer in new than in old firms.     

Long-term persistence in corporate capital structure: Evidence from India

This study examines the stability of corporate capital structure in a sample of listed Indian firms for the period 1988–2015. In general, the firms do not maintain a stable level of leverage over long durations. The firm specific temporal variations in leverage are large and significant. We find that capital structure models that incorporate time varying firm effects perform better in explaining the variation in leverage than those that employ time invariant firm effects. The cross-sectional distribution of leverage also exhibits considerable variations over time. The quartile decompositions of leverage cross-sections reveal that migrations across leverage quartiles are pervasive. Only the firms with low leverage ratios ratio exhibit some persistence in their leverage ratios. High leverage ratios are not rare but are invariably transient.     

Information and the persistence of private-order contract enforcement institutions: An experimental analysis

We study an experimental market in which some sellers are prone to moral hazard, and in which a private-order contract enforcement institution exists that can mediate trade and prevent sellers from reneging on their contractual obligations. Using the institution to resolve the moral-hazard problem is costly. We demonstrate that in this market, the utilization of the private-order contract enforcement institution may make public and private market signals uninformative and inhibit learning. We study whether this potential information externality can limit adaptation away from the private-order institution when it is efficient to do so. Consistent with theory, we find inefficient persistence when the institution is used, but by contrast, efficient adaptation in other situations. Providing information to individuals who are using the private-order institution allows them to partially adapt.     

Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden), and also on cross-country linkages, over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. For this purpose, it uses fractional integration/cointegration methods to measure the degree of persistence of the EPU and whether there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship linking the individual indices. This framework is much more general than the standard approaches based on the I(0)/I(1) dichotomy since it allows for fractional values of the integration/cointegration parameter and therefore does not impose restrictive assumptions on the dynamic behaviour of the individual series and their linkages. EPU is found to be in most cases a non-stationary, mean-reverting series which is characterised by long memory. Several breaks are also detected in each country. Finally, there is very little evidence of cross-country linkages. Our analysis provides fresh insights into the degree of persistence and the transmission of EPU shocks and has implications both for investors having to make risk management decisions and choose investment strategies and policymakers having to design effective macroeconomic policies.     

坚持就是胜利吗?创业坚持的研究述评与展望

创业坚持是创业过程中的重要内容。尽管近几年国内学者对创业坚持的关注度逐渐升温,但仍处于起步阶段。本文在回顾国内外文献的基础上,首先,从逆境与挫折、外部机会视角阐明了创业坚持的内涵,并辨析了其与毅力、创业韧性的区别;其次,从创业者、企业和外部环境三个层面梳理了创业坚持的影响因素和影响过程;最后,从理性与非理性视角出发,指出创业坚持是一把双刃剑,在提高创业者的工作满意度和财富收入,以及促进企业创建、成长和企业绩效的同时,也可能引发遗憾和工作-家庭冲突。在此基础上,针对当前研究存在的不足与缺陷,提出未来研究应该从创业坚持的测量、影响因素、结果变量、边界条件、跨文化研究等方向做进一步探索。     

The potential harms of goodwill impairment avoidance: Evidence based on future performance and stock prices

The rapidly increasing volume of goodwill assets in the capital market generates potential risks due to the possibility of an untimely recognition of goodwill impairment. In this paper, we investigate the financial consequences of goodwill impairment avoidance based on firms’ future performance and stock prices. Using Chinese A-share listed firms with goodwill balances, we find that avoiding goodwill impairments negatively affects a firm’s performance growth and increases its risk of a future stock price crash. These adverse effects continue for the three years following the goodwill impairment avoidance. Our results indicate that goodwill impairment avoidance has detrimental impacts on a firm’s future performance and stock price and that these impacts are persistent. Our conclusions are helpful for regulators on how to prevent the risks hidden in goodwill impairment recognition and maintain the stable development of the financial market.