The Impact of Power Distance and Uncertainty Avoidance on Real Options Exercise: Potential for Suboptimal Time Delays and Value Destruction

Real options (RO) valuation has been promoted as a way to evaluate investment opportunities and make investment decisions that takes into account the value of managerial flexibility in the face of uncertainty. Although RO enjoys a substantial body of literature considering its application and suitability in different situations, the impact of national culture on the application of RO has received little attention. Values embedded in national culture affect the behavior of managers. In particular, these values play a role in how managers frame information, communicate, and make decisions, directly and indirectly affecting behavior through cultural layers such as organizational culture. National culture, therefore, can systematically affect the application of RO, potentially leading to suboptimal outcomes. In this article, we hypothesize how 2 particularly relevant dimensions of culture, power distance and uncertainty avoidance, affect RO exercise, and estimate the magnitude suboptimality of these effects using a model we develop for the case of a put option. Our estimates suggest RO may not always be a superior valuation approach to net present value for national cultures with certain characteristics.     

资本回报率、人力资本投资与收入不平等——基于Galor-Zeira模型的扩展

资本回报率下降对人力资本投资、收入不平等程度有较大影响。本文将可变资本回报率加入Galor-Zeira模型,理论推导发现:收入不平等陷阱并非不可逾越的障碍。当技能劳动力工资高于受教育固定成本时,随着资本回报率下降,接受教育的遗赠临界水平将降低,更多家庭将发现投资人力资本是有利的,稳态的技能劳动力比例将提高。在当前资本回报率下降的大背景下,提高技能劳动力工资、降低受教育成本、对教育贷款实施财政减免优惠、为农村中等教育支出减负和提升农村教育质量、倡导节俭和重视遗赠的文化氛围在长期都有助于提高技能劳动力比重以及缓和收入不平等。     

Early Experience and Later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the effect of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition from junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persists across years and samples. Meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. Given the long-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving children and should look for alternatives.     

Non-linear Gaussian sovereign CDS pricing models

Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best.     

Hedging and pricing early-exercise options with complex fourier series expansion

We introduce a new numerical method called the complex Fourier series (CFS) method proposed by Chan (2017) to price options with an early-exercise feature—American, Bermudan and discretely monitored barrier options—under exponential Lévy asset dynamics. This new method allows us to quickly and accurately compute the values of early-exercise options and their Greeks. We also provide an error analysis to demonstrate that, in many cases, we can achieve an exponential convergence rate in the pricing method as long as we choose the correct truncated computational interval. Our numerical analysis indicates that the CFS method is computationally more comparable or favourable than the methods currently available. Finally, the superiority of the CFS method is illustrated with real financial data by considering Standard & Poor’s depositary receipts (SPDR) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the S&P 500® index options, which are American options traded from November 2017 to February 2018 and from 30 January 2019 to 21 June 2019.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

时间压力对网络冲动性购买的影响研究：交易效用和感知风险的调节

以往关于时间压力对冲动性购买影响的研究结论具有两面性，即促进或抑制。文章引入交易效用和感知风险两个调节变量，通过两个实验探讨了时间压力对网络冲动性购买倾向影响的边界条件。首先，当交易效用较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当交易效用较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验一）。其次，当人们感知风险较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当人们感知风险较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验二）。研究结论可以帮助电商企业进一步了解消费者的冲动性购买行为，充分利用时间压力的影响，制定更灵活有效的促销策略。     

现金股利分配政策是评价投资的基本标准

文章论及股东投资的目的;企业与股东的关系;以及股东与企业的行为规范.论证了现金股利是股东能从企业那里获得的最切实的利益.因此,现金分红应成为对企业的基本要求--不低于银行同期存款利率;同时指出在股权分置的证券市场中,企业分红愈多,对中小股东的侵害便愈大.仅此一点,解决股权分置也就成为必然.股权分置改革将营造更加公平公正的投资环境.     

考虑供给与需求波动性的安全库存定量研究

本文以商业企业和MTS模式下生产企业的安全库存为研究对象,将供给与需求的变动程度作为两个动态指标研究四种不同战略与运营环境下的安全库存模型,并进一步分析了降低安全库存所需的管理杠杆.