基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

毛泽东关于中国革命的科学预见及其重大意义

毛泽东具有高超的科学预见的能力。毛泽东的科学预见能力在于他掌握了社会调查的方法 ,正确地运用对立统一规律和量变到质变的规律 ,以及采取“从群众中来 ,到群众中去”的方法。学习毛泽东关于中国革命的科学预测理论与方法 ,对于处理当今国际国内的各种复杂问题有着十分重要的意义。     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

基于BP网络对我国通货膨胀率的预测及其分析

本文首先由我国的CPI计算出通货膨胀率,综合分析了我国通货膨胀率和GDP增长率数据。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2008～2009年我国CPI,从而推算出2008～2009年我国通货膨胀率分别是4.99%和4.91%左右。并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

Diffusion of Products with Limited Supply and Known Expiration Date

In this paper, we provide a model for diffusion of products, which are available in limited quantity until a known expiration date, after which the unsold products have no value. We consider the case of a performing arts company. The model development is built on the foundation of classical product diffusion model by Bass (1969) and the psychological effect known as the scarcity principle (Cialdini, 1985). Our empirical analysis results show that the proposed model can provide significant improvement in prediction of the products characterized by the scarcity effect.     

面向售后服务的汽车备品需求预测研究

根据面向售后服务的汽车备品需求特点的差异,本文将其分为专用配件和通用配件并分别选用不同的预测模型.对专用配件,采用基于时间序列相关的线性回归模型,并运用加权最小二乘法（WLS）估计参数.对通用配件,选用GM（1,1）模型进行需求预测.     

水泥土搅拌桩复合地基承载力的灰色预测

详细阐述灰色模型的建立及调整过程,利用复合地基沉降实测数据,根据灰色系统理论,建立(1,1)模型,可模拟复合地基的P~s曲线,预测地基沉降的发展趋势,分析水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的承载性能。     

趋势外推与ARMA组合的能源需求预测模型

能源需求预测是制定能源规划的重要组成部分.鉴于能源需求系统的复杂性和非线性特征,文章结合我国能源需求的历史数据,首先用趋势外推预测建立了单项预测模型,并对趋势外推预测的优缺点进行了分析;然后运用趋势外推与ARMA组合模型对趋势外推模型中的非趋势分量即残差序列进行分析,得到趋势外推与ARMA组合模型的预测结果;最后通过比较得出趋势外推与ARMA组合模型的预测结果不仅准确性高、而且稳定性好这一结论.这对于我国能源需求预测有着重要的理论意义和现实意义.     

基于偏离度分析法的江苏省旅游就业潜力预测

当前，旅游业的就业功能受到广泛关注和普遍重视，预测和把握旅游就业潜力对促进一个国家和地区旅游业的发展乃至国民经济的发展意义重大。在借鉴已有相关研究成果的基础上，以江苏省为例，运用偏离度分析法对其旅游就业潜力进行了具体测算，以期对江苏省旅游就业工作的发展有所裨益。