The innovative bureaucrat: evidence from the correctional authorities in Washington State

Bureaucracies are usually regarded as inefficient, wasteful mechanisms. Contrary to this deeply rooted perception of bureaucracy, this paper documents the case of the correctional authorities in Washington State, a bureaucracy that acted with a considerable degree of innovation and professionalism. Their task was to administer a risk assessment instrument that measured the level of risk posed by offenders by way of a numerical score. They used that score to identify the level of supervision offenders were to receive once released into the community. In analyzing the data, I discovered an unusual application of the instrument that resulted in many offenders being bumped to a higher supervision level. Using a regression discontinuity design, I uncover the mechanics of the bumping-up process and I generate an instrument that is cleansed of the manipulation. I find that the manipulated instrument predicts serious recidivism events better than the cleansed instrument, especially when these events involve high-risk offenders, thus providing evidence that the authorities had good reason to undertake the manipulation.     

论刑罚功能与再犯

刑罚的目的是预防犯罪,包括特殊预防与一般预防。但事实证明,现有刑罚已不再容易达到预防犯罪的目的,其功能不能有效发挥,甚至令人担忧。尤其是被法院本着＂宽和精神＂判处拘役、短期有期徒刑的罪犯,再犯现象严重。本文结合某地区再犯刑事案件统计情况进行分析,并提出对刑罚进行修改的建议。     

Latent Markov Modelling of Recidivism Data

This article discusses the application of latent Markov modelling for the analysis of recidivism data. We briefly examine the relations of Markov modelling with log–linear analysis, pointing out pertinent differences as well. We show how the restrictive Markov model may be more easily applicable by adding latent variables to the model, in which case the latent Markov model is a dynamic version of the latent class model. As an illustration, we apply latent Markov analysis on an empirical data set of juvenile prosecution careers, showing how the Markov analyses producing well-fitting and interpretable solutions. We end by comparing the possible contributions of Markov modelling in recidivism research, outlining its drawbacks as well. Recommendations and directions for future research conclude the article.     

Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate. Within a model-based analysis, we treat (1) shared effects of each group with the same systematic conditions, (2) strongly non-Gaussian features of the individual time series, (3) unobserved common systematic conditions, (4) changing recidivism probabilities in continuous time and (5) missing observations. We adopt a non-Gaussian multivariate state-space model that deals with all these issues simultaneously. The parameters of the model are estimated by Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. This paper illustrates the methods empirically. We compare continuous time trends and standard discrete-time stochastic trend specifications. We find interesting common time variation in the recidivism behaviour of the juveniles during a period of 13 years, while taking account of significant heterogeneity determined by personality characteristics and initial crime records.     

After The Fall: Stock Price Movements and the Deterrent Effect of Antitrust Enforcement

In this paper, we utilize data on stock price movements of firms indicted on price-fixing charges to infer expectations of antitrust recidivism. Specifically, a return of the firm's (market-adjusted) asset value to its pre-indictment level in the post-indictment period is taken as evidence of stockholders' expectations of a return to collusive behavior. From these data, we are able to make direct inferences about the effectiveness of antitrust enforcement actions. Importantly, we find that the stock prices of 85 percent of the firms in our sample had regained 100 percent of their pre-indictment levels within one year of the antitrust action. Such widespread and rapid stock price appreciation casts doubt on the durability of thedeterrent effect of Section 1 enforcement.     

浅议我国古代刑法制度中的罪数

罪数就是犯罪的个数。本来罪数是与犯罪现象相伴而生的,就是说有了犯罪即有了犯罪的个数问题。但是,罪数自一种客观存在的犯罪现象,发展为一种理论形态,乃至在法律上得到反映,是与人类文明同步进行的,是人类法律文化发展到一定阶段的产物。它经历了一个从客观到主观,从个别到一般、从朦胧到明确、从简单到系统的演变历程。本文通过叙述我国古代刑法制度关于罪数规定的演变进程,分析我国古代刑法制度中罪数的特点。     

单位累犯制度若干问题研究

由于现行刑法的明确规定,单位成为和自然人并列的一类犯罪主体,这为打击实践中纷繁复杂的单位犯罪问题提供了有效的法律保障。然而,刑法在肯定单位犯罪主体地位的同时,对与之密切相关的一系列刑罚制度问题并没有做出明确的规定,单位累犯制度就是其中之一。文章旨在通过对单位累犯相关问题的探析,为完善单位犯罪刑罚制度提出拙见。     

恐怖活动犯罪界定问题思考

针对《刑法修正案(八)》对特殊累犯的规定中有关恐怖活动犯罪含义不明的问题,提出应从罪刑法定的刑法基本原则出发,采用规范分析法为主,结合背景分析的方法,试图对其中的恐怖活动犯罪的界定问题作分析思考,并提出认定的设想和建议。     

Out of Site,Out of Mind? The Role of the Government-Appointed Corporate Monitor

We study the role of a relatively new type of external firm monitor, an on-site government-appointed Corporate Monitor, and assess whether such appointments reduce firms' propensity to violate laws. Using a sample of deferred and nonprosecution agreements, we first document the determinants of Monitor appointment. We find firms that voluntarily disclose wrongdoing and have more independent directors are less likely to have Corporate Monitors, whereas those with more severe infractions, mandated board changes, and increased cooperation requirements are more likely to have Monitors. We find such appointments are associated with an 18%–25% reduction in violations while the Monitor is on site, however, the effect does not persist after the Monitorship ends. Using a semisupervised machine learning method to measure changes in firms' ethics and compliance norms, we find that the reduction in violations is associated with changes in ethics and compliance that also do not persist. Finally, we document that firms under Monitorship experience a persistent reduction in innovation, highlighting a previously unexplored cost of these interventions. Overall, our results suggest that, although Corporate Monitors on site are associated with fewer violations, firms revert to previous levels of violations following Monitors' departure.