不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定

针对不完备信息系统条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定问题，提出了一种基于改进容差关系粗糙集（ITR-RS）的不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定方法。该方法将粗糙集中的不完备信息系统理论引入辐射源威胁等级判定中，并构建一套完备的决策规则提取模型。此外，利用辨识矩阵实现对属性的约简，在降低系统所需处理数据量的同时，提高了算法的实时性；在容差关系粗糙集的基础上，提出一种改进的容差关系，在属性主、客权重相结合的基础上引入阈值来划分加权阈值容差类，得到更为合理、准确的决策规则。仿真试验及分析表明，与经典RS算法相比，所提算法的威胁等级判定正确率提高了23%，可用于信息系统不完备条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定。     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.     

“后危机时代”我国对外工程承包行业的“危”与“机”

美国金融危机对全球经济影响深远,这给国际工程承包市场的尽早复苏蒙上了一层阴影。受其影响,我国对外工程承包行业市场扩张潜力受挫,但我国对外工程承包行业的比较优势尚存,＂核心市场＂依然充满活力,加之国际环境总体缓和,也给我国对外工程承包行业经营全球化提供了契机。不论是政府还是企业,都要利用经济危机后的＂大变动、大调整＂的良好机遇,创造良好的市场环境,加快产业升级,提升我国对外工程承包行业的整体竞争力。     

境内人民币银行卡清算市场的结构政策选择——“封堵”威胁引发的思考

Visa的“封堵”威胁源于两点：一是其境内市场战略遭遇严重挫折,二是中国银联境外受理网络不断扩张侵蚀了其境外清算收益。但本文的分析表明,在境内人民币银行卡清算市场准入终将放开这一假设预期基础上,“封堵”威胁是不可置信的。渐进式的结构重构应是境内人民币银行卡清算市场的结构政策选择。具体来说,短期内应维持中国银联在境内人民币银行卡清算市场的垄断地位,同时强化对中国银联的政府监管,使其基本具备应对国际银行卡组织竞争的能力,为准入的放开创造条件;尽早明确境内人民币银行卡清算市场准入放开的时间,最终放开市场准入,培育有效竞争的市场结构。     

Export Motives,Psychological Distance,and the EPRG Framework

The EPRG framework is usually discussed on a conceptual level. Relatively few empirical examinations of the framework have been reported in the literature to date. This paper takes the required first step by placing the framework in a nomological network. This network includes export motives, psychological distance between home and host markets, and transference versus adaptation of international marketing strategies and activities. The findings lend support to the proposed nomological network.     

并购失败：管理者利益保护还是经济安全威胁解除？——凯雷收购徐工案例研究

凯雷集团并购徐工机械是国内第一起由国际私人股权基金获得大型国有企业绝对控股权的案例。文章采用事件研究法,以徐工机械控股的上市公司徐工科技为研究对象,分析了此次并购过程中的五个事件：首次签署并购协议,博客门事件,修订并购协议,二次修订并购协议,协议到期。研究表明上市公司股东在前两个事件中获得了显著的正超常收益,而在后两个事件中的超常收益显著为负,至协议到期并购失败后又获得显著为正的超常收益。从并购过程中的市场反应来看,支持经济安全威胁的证据比支持管理者利益保护的证据更强。     

中国成立上海自贸区的SWOT分析

中国(上海)自由贸易实验区的建立成为推动中国经济改革的重要路径,如何把握自贸区在中国经济结构调整过程中的地位,打造中国经济"升级版",基于中国的视角,采用定性分析和实证分析的方法,用美国旧金山大学的管理学教授韦里克提出的SWOT模型对成立自贸区的优势、劣势、机遇、威胁进行研究。     

The Psychological Influences of Threat on B2C E-commerce Adoption: An Extended Study and Explanatory Framework

In order to better understand how internet users actually decide to conduct business transactions or related activities in a B2C e-commerce environment, this article adds a new lens of study by investigating the roles of Threat Appraisal (TA) and Perceived Coping Appraisal (PCA) from the end user's perspective. Based on established academic theories and relevant industrial practices, it is suggested that TA and PCA are critical behavioral components influencing the user's intentions to participate in online transactions. These functions serve as important inputs to formalizing our understanding of how services offered by e-commerce websites are utilized.     

Anticipated foreign military threat, arms accumulation, and the current account in a small open economy

This paper examines the effects of an anticipated foreign military threat on consumption, the home weapons stock, and net foreign asset position in a small open economy. If the utility function is separable between butter and guns, the economy decreases both butter and guns when the news arrives, accumulates foreign assets prior to the foreign threat realization, and increases guns as the foreign threat realizes. If the utility function is nonseparable between butter and guns, the economy may have two dynamic responses. The first is similar to the separable case, except that consumption exhibits a discrete jump when the foreign threat realizes. The second is that the economy increases both butter and guns on impact, decumulates foreign assets prior to the foreign threat implementation, but either increases or decreases guns as the foreign threat realizes.     

The Language Backfire Effect: How Frontline Employees Decrease Customer Satisfaction through Language Use

Extant marketing research holds that customers prefer frontline personnel to speak the customers’ first language. Furthermore, current managerial practices instruct frontline employees to either use the customers’ first language or, in international settings, to use English. Through five studies in different retail and service contexts, we identify situations where the opposite is true. The results of the first two studies suggest that if customers initiate contact in a second language, the frontline employee’s switch to the customer’s first language constitutes an identity threat leading customers to feel less satisfied; an effect we term the language backfire effect. Our third study extends these results to a domestic context to test for the impact of linguistic acculturation on how immigrant customers perceive frontline employees’ language switch. The fourth study replicates the findings in a real-life retail context. These results present a paradox for marketing research: although frontline employees switch to customers’ first language to accommodate them, these actions might not have the desired consequences. Having identified and described the problem of the language backfire effect, our final study introduces and verifies a managerially actionable solution: combining the language switch with a language proficiency compliment offsets the language backfire effect.