Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

对外开放、产业结构与中国森林公园旅游效率

借助DEA方法对2008~2014年中国大陆31个省份的森林公园旅游效率进行测算,并且采用Tobit模型重点研究对外开放、产业结构对中国森林公园旅游效率的影响。研究发现:中国森林公园旅游效率总体较高,但是省域之间差别较大;对外开放程度对中国森林公园旅游效率具有倒U型的显著影响,即对外开放程度对于森林公园旅游效率的边际贡献存在递减效应;产业结构(第一产业比例)对中国森林公园旅游资源利用效率具有显著的负向影响,即产业结构高级化成为推动旅游效率改善的内在因素。森林公园密度、城市人口密度对中国森林公园旅游效率具有显著地正向影响;南方林区与西南林区相对于华北林区来说,优越的地理条件更容易提高森林公园旅游资源的利用效率。基于研究提出开放程度较低的地区需要积极扩大对外开放水平;加速产业结构调整,推动产业结构合理化,以期带动森林公园旅游资源的利用效率。     

环境约束下中国工业企业创新效率评价及影响因素研究

本文应用SBM模型的改进DEA模型以及DEA-Tobit法对中国2006～2015年环境约束下工业企业技术创新效率及其影响因素进行实证分析，研究结果表明，非期望产出对企业效率评价结果有较大影响，北部沿海综合经济区的环境效率值最高；西北综合经济区、长江中游综合经济区、黄河中游综合经济区、东北综合经济区环境效率值相对较差。政府支持力度、企业规模与环境约束下的工业企业技术创新效率呈正相关关系，企业聚集度与其呈负相关关系，而企业技术水平与从业人员素质对其影响较小。     

Food scandals,media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers

Consumer reactions to food scandals and their resulting economic implication are well documented. However, studies have typically neglected the roles that consumption habits and media usage behaviours may play in explaining household’s response to food safety incidences. In this study we develop a model of heterogeneous media usage intensity, information impacts and decay over time to estimate household’s behavioural responses to the 2011 German Dioxin scandal. We are specifically interested in determining the degree of heterogeneity in household’s short-term adjustments demand patterns versus persisting long-term consumption habits of meat products (chicken and pork) directly affected by the incident. The empirical analysis employs detailed household-level retail scanner and media usage data collected by the GfK Consumer Scan panel for a total of 16,023 households over a period of 104 calendar weeks. Results of dynamic correlated random effect Tobit models indicate an important role of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining household responses during the food scandal. We find strong empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis that short-term marginal adjustments in demand and propensity to buy affected products triggered by the negative impact of household media exposure were over-compensated by habit persistence. The question of how consumption patterns evolve over time in the presence of food scandals is expected to be of interest for both policy makers and the food industry. The potential biases in the projection of economic impacts resulting from simplifying assumptions of household’s response patterns to a proliferating numbers of food safety incidences has implications for risk management and public policy.     

混合型基金绩效评估及驱动因素分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型

将随机选出的混合型基金作为研究样本,采用DEA-Tobit二阶段模型进行研究.首先利用数据包络模型对样本进行绩效评估,在此基础上,利用Tobit模型研究相关指标对于基金绩效的影响机制.结果表明,基金本身所面临的风险收益因素以及基金经理团队稳定性对于基金绩效均具显著影响.最后结合实证结果就提升中国基金绩效提出相关的建议.     

基于DEA-Tobit模型的马铃薯生产效率分析——以甘肃省定西市为例

随着社会的进步和农村经济的发展,农业生产效率已成为制约农民收入、造成农村落后的关键因素。中国是马铃薯的生产大国,其生产效率的提高对我国马铃薯产业的持续发展和保障我国的粮食安全有着很重要的意义。研究基于2014年对甘肃省定西市样本农户马铃薯种植的调查数据,采用DEA模型测算农户种植马铃薯的生产效率,并利用Tobit模型对影响马铃薯生产效率的因素进行分析。研究表明:农户生产马铃薯的综合技术效率较低,规模效率成为制约其生产效率提升的瓶颈;家庭纯收入、马铃薯的种植比例和引进新品种3个变量在0.01水平下对生产效率的影响达到显著;户主的年纪在0.05水平下对生产效率的影响达到显著;马铃薯的收购价格、农户是否参加合作社和种植培训、离农贸市场距离与马铃薯的生产效率间存在不显著的正相关关系。基于以上调研提出了鼓励土地流转、提高生产技术水平、加大农民生产技能培训力度、多方面增加农民收入和合理布局农产品贸易市场等政策性建议。     

我国三大经济区的区域化收益及其影响因素——基于城市经济效率的视角

经济区域化是目前我国城市经济发展的根本趋势,考察各类城市参与经济区域化的获益程度及其影响因素具有很强的现实意义。本文借鉴Byrnes和Storbeck(2000)的方法,基于城市经济效率的视角,考察了长三角、珠三角和京津冀地区的区域化收益水平,并基于Tobit模型对影响区域化收益的各种因素进行了计量分析。结果显示,我国三大经济区的区域化收益存在显著差异,京津冀地区的区域化收益最高,长三角地区次之,珠三角地区最低。进一步的计量分析发现,专业化分工和技术研发能力有利于区域化收益的实现,而外资的引进、政府的作用和城市空间影响则扩大了区域化收益,多样化分工和对外贸易对区域化收益的影响尚不明确,分地区的计量分析也基本上得出了同样的结论。加强区域内与区域间分工,是实现区域化收益和提升城市经济效率的根本途径。     

环境规制对企业生产率有好处吗？——来自企业层面数据的证据

利用2006年1000多家中国企业的调查数据,采用最小二乘法和Tobit模型实证研究了环境规制对企业生产率的影响及机制。结果表明环境规制本身与企业生产率之间存在着稳定、显著的正向关系;环境规制强度与企业生产率之间也存在着稳定、显著的正向关系;不同规模和不同地理位置的企业其生产率呈现不同的表现,企业对环境成本上升带来的消化能力有差异。经过稳健性检验,研究结论也依然成立。     

HRM implementation by line managers: explaining the discrepancy in HR-line perceptions of HR devolution

Previous studies already established the idea of a partnership in which HR professionals and line managers share an organisation’s HRM responsibility. Yet, this relationship is often plagued by conflicts and other obstacles. As such, a perceptual discrepancy is likely to exist between both parties on the degree of HR devolution, which may eventually lead to bad performance. Using survey data, we empirically analyse which factors may explain a perceptual discrepancy between HR professionals and line managers on the latter group’s role in HRM. Results show that the HR-line discrepancy on the degree of HR devolution is rooted in differences in perception on several other factors, including organisational support, (personnel) red tape, the line’s individual capacity and age. Overall, though, it is a matter of understanding both HR’s expectations and the line’s experiences in all aspects of their partnership.