碳税循环政策对中国农村能源结构调整的作用——基于CGE模型的政策讨论

本文立足中国二元经济体系影响依然存在的社会现实，构建了基于CHAYANOV农民模型假设基础之上的CGE模型。并从二氧化碳减排、缓解常规能源供给压力的能源可持续发展角度出发，提出在常规能源部门收入碳税补贴现代生物质能发展的政策建议。文中重点分析了碳税循环政策实施后城乡两部门的社会经济综合变化，对碳税实施的假设给予充分肯定。     

APEC贸易自由化效果的实证分析

1994年，亚太经济合作组织（以下简称APEC）确立了发达国家于2010年，发展中国家于2020年实现贸易和投资自由化的目标。贸易自由化目标的实现必将对亚太，乃至整个世界产生重要影响。利用可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）对APEC贸易自由化效果进行了模拟分析，结论是几乎所有APEC成员都能从中获益。根据模拟结果，中国作为其中一员，成为从贸易自由化的实现中获益较多的国家。     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

CGE assumptions under scrutiny: uncertainty in the ethanol promotion policy in Mexico

Based on a CGE exercise of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production in Mexico, we use Monte Carlo simulations for consumer demand elasticities and ethanol cost estimates. The analysis provides three conclusions: when markets vary smoothly and predictably, Monte Carlo methods can then help to gauge the actual probability that a given program will achieve a desired outcome. Second, secondary markets may display little or no sensitivity to these parameter variations. Finally, a ‘razor’s edge’ outcome with no positive benefits if a critical parameter falls below some critical value, reveals that an economic policy may not be conducive to ‘fine tuning’ by marginal adjustments.     

Migration and employment interactions in a crisis context

This article analyses how a crisis impacts labour markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages between migration, the labour market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modelling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result of this study is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline.     

不同碳排放达峰情景对产业结构的影响——基于动态CGE模型的分析

依据2017年投入产出表数据,运用可计算一般均衡理论,构建包括13个中间产业部门和5个能源产业部门的动态CGE模型,考量不同碳排放达峰情景对于产业结构的影响。结果显示：碳减排政策能促进产业结构优化,包括农业、轻工业和服务业等在内的低碳产业部门在总产出中占比增加,高耗能产业部门如非金属矿物加工业、金属加工业等在总产出中占比下降;对能源产出结构影响显著,高碳能源如煤炭、石油在能源产出比例下降,低碳能源如天然气在能源产出比例增加,其中可再生能源比例上升幅度最大。鉴此,应完善碳交易市场运行配套政策和环境,加大技术创新力度,促进产业结构和能源结构优化升级。     

基于可计算的一般均衡模型的我国碳税政策“双重红利”研究

建立了分析我国减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税的可计算的一般均衡模型,分析碳税政策的双重红利。结果显示:为减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税,对社会经济变量将造成一定的负面影响。保持财政中性,在征收碳税的时候,减少居民或者企业间接税,都可以在减少二氧化碳排放量的同时提高社会福利或者保持社会福利变化不大,实现碳税的双重红利。但是在保持财政中性,在征收碳税的同时减少企业所得税,虽然减少了二氧化碳排放量,居民的社会福利却有了更大程度的下降。     

Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

Livestock intensification as a climate policy: Lessons from the Brazilian case

Brazil is trying to identify ways to ally economic growth with climate change mitigation. Productivity gains in livestock have been pointed out as a promising alternative to achieve that goal. Thus, this paper analyses the economic impacts of a policy of productivity gains in the Brazilian livestock. Besides, we evaluate if the policy may conciliate agricultural growth and deforestation control, bearing in mind the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use changes. The analysis was carried out through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, tailored to represent land-use changes, GHG emissions and removals. Besides, it made progress modeling the heterogeneity of climate, soils, and emissions in inter-regional models with many regions. The results show that productivity gains can effectively “save” land and thus avoid deforestation, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado (savannah) biomes. The policy also may boost the economic growth, spreading it to other regions of Brazil, like Centre-West and North, and increasing income and consumption in those places. However, as a climate policy, focused on the reduction of GHG emissions, the results may be counterproductive. The net amount issued may increase, as a result of the positive stimulus of the policy on the economy, and GHG emissions are directly related to the economic growth.