Forecasting the UK economy with a medium-scale Bayesian VAR

We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies.     

浅谈高职会计专业的实践教学

文章通过对目前高职会计专业实践教学的现状和存在的问题予以分析，寻求实践教学的新思路、新模式，探讨如何培养出具有熟练会计核算能力、利用会计资料和会计软件进行会计监督、参与企业经营管理预测和决策能力的技术型会计人才。     

在阅读教学中培养学生的思维品质

文章对在阅读教学中如何培养学生的思维品质进行了探索和研究。概括起来主要有四方面：采用三阶六步课堂结构模式；培养学生的问题意识；教给学生质疑和解疑方法；展示思维过程。     

《国际贸易实务》教学之"七用"谈

我国加入WTO后，对高校的国际贸易实务教学提出了更高要求，文章以七个方面总结了教学工作中的若干经验。     

关于如何提高财务管理教学质量的几点建议

针对财务管理学的特点,本文分别从教学内容、教学方法、教学手段和考核方法这四方面探讨了如何提高财务管理的教学质量.     

多媒体技术在数学教学中的应用

要深化教学改革必须充分发挥信息技术的优势，采用多媒体技术进行数学教学势在必行。文章从激发学习兴趣、提高学习效率、优化教学过程等方面阐述了运用多媒体技术进行数学教学的必然性、可行性、优越性。     

The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.     

Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation

This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer, it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects. The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent factor of divergence. JEL no. F43, O40     

On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data

We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold.     

外语教学法分析及其启示

本文通过对十种外语教学法的产生过程、原则及其优缺点的分析，从中得到有益的启示：外语教学法是依据不同的语言学、心理学、教育学、哲学等理论来建立自身的理论，所以它们自然会强调这些学科的不同的侧面。因此，我们要择善而从、博采众长，从实际出发，因材施教，灵活运用。