A note on “Bed allocation techniques based on census data”

Capacity planning and resource allocation are crucial to the cost-effective delivery of health care services. In this paper, we present an analytic approach based on a modified version of the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality forecasting model to determine the frequency distribution associated with a hospital care unit's census. This paper is a follow-up to the census frequency distribution simulation model described in Lapierre et al. (Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 33 (1999) 25). We demonstrate that our model can provide census frequency distributions equivalent to the simulation model of Lapierre et al. [1], but without the computational effort common to simulation models.     

中国城镇化进程中社会保障制度的城乡统筹

长期以来,我国实行城乡二元保障格局和严格的户籍管理制度, 使城乡居民享受不平等的社会保障待遇,导致城乡隔离和分割,限制了农村剩余劳动力的转移和向城市的流动,延缓了我国城市化进程.适应城镇化建设需要,构建一元化的社会保障制度是中国社会保障制度设计的终极目标.根据当前实际,应从户籍制度改革、城乡社会保障项目整合、制度完善等方面采取对策措施.     

北京市户口逐步开放条件分析

北京作为我国的首都,政治、文化中心,其人口数量与日俱增,而流动人口的大规模的增加是北京常住人口快速增加的主动力,传统的户籍限制存在的弊端日益凸显,本文认为户籍制度改革向流动人口倾斜具有一定必要性和可能性,并提出首先逐步向河北天津籍流动人口开放,以缓解北京人口压力,同时保证2015年后劳动力的供给。     

对完善我国经济普查方案的若干思考

为更好地获取国民经济和社会发展的详细信息,制定合理的国民经济计划和经济政策,国务院决定在2004年开展第一次全国经济普查,这种全新的统计调查是对我国传统普查制度的一次重大改革,无疑具有划时代的意义。然而,从已公布的普查方案看,此次经济普查仍有许多问题不能得到圆满的解决,普查的方案仍需进一步地完善和发展。     

上海低龄失业群体现状分析与问题思考

利用上海市第五次人口普查资料 1 0 %抽样调查数据 ,分析 2 0～ 39岁低龄群体的失业问题。通过透视“2 0 30”1 低龄失业群体的特征 ,挖掘隐藏在其背后的失业原因 ,为当前解决低龄群体就业问题提供借鉴     

我国区域职业结构与经济社会发展的关联性分析

职业结构是就业结构的重要组成部分,反映一定社会经济条件下劳动力的职业配置状况,而不同的经济发展阶段的职业结构存在不同的特征。将职业结构定义为就业人口的职业分布,借助"六普"数据的分析总结我国现阶段各地区职业结构状况,可以看出:区域经济社会发展与区域就业人员的职业结构关系密切,各地区随着人均GDP的不断增高,其非农职业的就业人员所占比重有逐渐增高的趋势;区域经济社会发展指标对职业结构的影响差异较大。期望这些结论对各地政府的就业管理、职业管理工作和职业培训工作有一定的指导意义。     

The poor outside the lamplight: on the prevalence of poverty among population groups not included in household surveys

Poverty rate calculations are often based on household surveys that exclude some of the groups most vulnerable to poverty such as the homeless. This paper documents the nature of the excluded groups and the quantitative importance of their omission for the Czech Republic. Our study combines European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 2011 with information from the 2011 Population Census. Our preferred estimate indicates an increase in the poverty rate by almost one percentage point. The paper contributes to accurately identifying the most vulnerable members of the society, which is essential for setting effective social policies.     

贵州商专新生心理普查与心理建档工作研究

本研究在对贵州商专2006年以来历年开展的心理普查的纵向研究及与国内高校相关调查研究的横向比较的情况下,使用SCL-90量表对该校2011级学生进行了心理普查,在开展了资料查阅,院校、系部走访调查的基础上,结合贵州商专近几年心理健康教育工作、学校校园三级心理防护网建设及新生心理普查情况,汇总资料、总结经验,对如何更为科学、规范、有效地开展新生心理普查以及心理建档的目的、项目构成,心理档案的管理与使用规范进行了探讨。     

Where to draw the line: Data problems and other difficulties estimating urbanisation in Africa

The purpose of this article is to review the current state of knowledge on the pitfalls around definitions of the urban and the use of census data in estimating and tracking changes in urban populations. Differing criteria for the urban population and changing definitions make comparisons of levels of urbanisation very difficult across countries. Where censuses are held infrequently and administered less rigorously, accurate data on the urban population are a particular problem. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary African cities are increasingly important sites of urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is far less knowledge about these smaller cities. This article therefore looks at issues around estimates of populations in sub-Saharan cities and why this is a particular problem in smaller cities. Some of the implications of these problems are discussed, as well as measures to improve our understanding of the urbanisation process in smaller cities.     

“六普”看我国人力资源现状

通过从第六次人口普查数据入手,在宏观层面从数量和质量两个角度分析我国的人力资源现状,总结分析人力资源总体规模和性别、年龄、地域、行业、职业等属性的结构性特征,从而得出我国现阶段人力资源的总体特征是：人力资源数量丰富,人力资源质量亟待提高,人力资源内部结构不均衡;要从人口大国迈向人力资源强国,就需要确保教育投资的规模和结构,要重视职业能力建设,大力发展职业教育和培训,重视老年人力资源开发。