当前新疆自然灾害形势及其防御对策

新疆是一个自然灾害发生较为频繁的区域;通过对当前新疆自然灾害的形势及防灾减灾工作中存在问题的分析,提出了具体的防治对策和解决办法,以正确认识当前新疆自然灾害形势,减轻或避免自然灾害所造成的损失.     

长江中游根治洪灾策略与措施的探讨

长江中游是长江自然—经济—社会复合生态系统的重要组成部分,当前洪涝灾害频繁而严重。按照长江洪水发生的自然规律调整好人与自然的关系,改变长期以来舍南保北、以堵为主、重蓄轻泄的做法,实施疏泄为主的防洪策略,并采取相应的工程和非工程措施(如下荆江裁弯、开辟分流洪道、四口建闸、洞庭湖水系南北分流、疏浚河道、南水北调及平垸行洪等),同时配合进行水源生态工程及江河库湖调蓄工程建设,才能根治长江中游洪涝灾害。     

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

We examine natural disasters and long‐run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find no direct effect of long‐run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin‐country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.     

Natural disasters,growth and institutions: A tale of two earthquakes

We examine the impact of natural disasters on GDP per capita by applying the synthetic control approach and using a within-country perspective. Our analysis encompasses two large-scale earthquakes that occurred in two different Italian regions in 1976 and 1980. We show that the short-term effects are negligible in both regions, though they become negative if we simulate the GDP that would have been observed in absence of financial aid. In the long-term, our findings indicate a positive effect in one case and a negative effect in the other, largely reflecting divergent patterns of the TFP. Consistent with these findings, we offer further evidence suggesting that a quake and related financial aid might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption, distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital. Finally, we show that the bad outcome is more likely to occur in regions with lower pre-quake institutional quality. As a result, our evidence suggests that unanticipated local shocks are likely to change long run growth rates, exacerbating territorial disparities.     

我国西部农村防震减灾社会管理内容构建的初步探讨

通过对我国西部农村防震减灾方面的现状、制度建设和社会管理方面存在问题的分析,初步提出了一套适于西部农村防震减灾的社会管理方法和理论体系,初步构建了农村地区防震减灾的社会管理内容。研究成果为《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》的基本法律制度具体化、可操作性提供依据,为建立和完善农村防震减灾相关制度提供依据。     

Crisis Management Competencies

Since public networks became widespread, doubts have arisen over how to make them succeed. Scholars have traditionally addressed the issue in different ways, thus variously shedding light on the network structure, mechanisms, or managers as predictors of the network performance. The aim of our article is to explore the possibility of an interaction effect between the abovementioned factors. Our results show that there may be a relationship between network structure, mechanisms, and managers that jointly affects network performance. Therefore, important suggestions can be made about how to manage public networks successfully: (1) ensure that your network mechanisms and managerial abilities are coherent with the structure of your network; and (2) if you are in a well-established and integrated network, allow yourself some flexibility. Data were collected through a multiple case study that focused on collaboration for joint provision of home care services in Switzerland.     

广西野生动植物和自然保护区灾害情况调查报告

广西野生动植物及自然保护区在本次雨雪冰冻灾害中受损面积之大、危害程度之深为历史所罕见。保护区基础硬件设施损毁严重;森林植被遭到严重破坏,生态系统结构和功能受损;野生动植物及栖息地受灾严重、生物多样性下降。当前抗灾救灾面临保护区生产生活困难大,森林防火难度大,区内资源损失情况调查、监测和评估尚未开展等问题。建议:提高认识、开展对保护区森林生态系统和野生动植物资源的调查、监测和评估;加强防火、病虫害防治和防止乱砍滥伐;加强野生动物的救助和疫病防护工作。     

结构鞭梢效应的理解和设计建议

鞭梢效应是指在地震作用下,高层建筑或其他建（构）筑物顶部细长突出部分振幅剧烈增大的现象。在一些高层建筑中,经常会有突出屋面的楼梯间、电梯间、水箱间、设备间等。国内外的多次地震震害表明,突出屋面部分的震害普遍严重。本文针对出屋面的建（构）筑物的鞭梢效应,综合规范和震害破坏做了分析比较。提出设计建议。     

自然灾害频发环境下的湖北农业保险发展研究

湖北农业保险自2007年中央财政介入后发展迅速,已初步建成保险产品、经营主体和经营模式＂三位一体＂的供给体系,业务规模增长迅速,补偿效果明显改善。但快速增加的农业保险供给仍然难以满足农业自然灾害风险转移需求,体现出数量性矛盾、结构性矛盾和可持续性矛盾。需要采取明确经营方式、扩大试点品种、完善巨灾风险分散机制以及防范道德风险和逆向选择等措施,缓解湖北农业保险供求矛盾,推动湖北农业保险发展。