The Effect of Earnings–Announcement Timing on Earnings Management

This paper examines whether firms which delay earnings announcements engage in earnings management. The cross–sectional version of the modified Jones 1995 model is used to estimate 'normal' accruals. Prior research has documented that, on average, delayed earnings announcements are associated with negative earnings surprises. Our evidence suggests that the market anticipates unfavorable earnings news when it observes reporting delays. As a consequence, late reporters appear to make the most of a bad situation by employing income–decreasing accruals in big–bath–type earnings management and in contractual renegotiations. We find that the magnitude of income–reducing abnormal accruals is related to the reporting lag.     

温泉旅游的发展与研究述评

对国内外温泉旅游发展的历史回顾与研究进行了综述：国外温泉旅游大致经历了缘起、发展与衰弱、复兴三个发展阶段；中国的温泉旅游改革开放以后才真正开始，走过了从疗养院到度假区再到综合性旅游度假区的发展历程。国内外温泉旅游的研究以历史回顾和经验总结为主，在温泉旅游的开发规划、旅游市场、温泉旅游地生命周期及可持续发展等方面有待发展深化。     

Hot money in disaggregated capital flows

We explore the possible existence and behavior of hot money in six categories of disaggregated bilateral capital flows (equity inflows, equity outflows, bond inflows, bond outflows, banking credit inflows, and banking credit outflows) for 12 emerging markets vis-à-vis the US from 1995 to 2012 and provides several new findings. First, we identify the existence of hot money in all six categories above and conclude that both gross inflows and gross outflows can be the sources of hot money. Second, hot money in equity inflows (outflows) engages in positive (negative) feedback trading regarding local stock market returns. Third, some categories of hot money have a temporary influence on local stock market returns while the others have a permanent influence, supporting the explanations of both price pressures and information advantage. Finally, local stock market returns in half of our sample countries, which have tightened capital controls during the late 2000s global financial crisis (GFC), are more affected by hot money than in the other half. Our findings confirm several popular conjectures of hot money, and endorse the use of capital controls to limit financial vulnerability in the run-up to and during the GFC.     

桂林2013年3月19日1次强对流性天气过程分析

针对2013年3月23日出现的降雹天气过程,利用Micaps资料及新一代雷达探测资料,从环流背景、物理量场和雷达回波演变几方面综合分析了产生这次强对流天气的过程。     

公路工程施工项目特殊季节与夜间施工安全控制要点

由于公路工程施工项目多数属于点多线长、露天和连续作业,涉及的人员、材料、机械设备多,技术含量低且需要经常变换工种的施工环境,使得安全风险大,因此,各施工单位必须对夜间和季节性施工安全措施高度重视,针对夜间施工和未来特殊气候环境影响下施工中可能发生的造成人员伤亡、疾病、财产损失、工作环境破坏等危险及紧急情况,采取有针对性的事先预防措施。     

温泉度假村旅游服务质量评价实证研究——以河源御临门温泉度假村为例

以河源御临门温泉度假村为例,以温泉旅游服务质量评价问卷为基础,对影响温泉旅游服务质量的20个因素进行了分析,探讨游客对温泉度假村整体旅游服务质量的总体评价。建议度假村从"原生态"温泉文化、温泉旅游解说系统的建设、特色客家温泉饮食文化、员工培训等四个方面进行完善与提高,提升服务满意度。     

On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.     

蓝田县汤峪温泉开发的影响因素分析

温泉旅游度假区是我国一个新兴旅游项目,近年来发展很快。通过大量的实证调查,对影响蓝田汤峪温泉度假区开发的主要因素进行综合分析。这些因素是温泉资源自身因素,周边自然和人文景观,客源市场和交通条件,区域经济发展水平,温泉旅游文化特色,空间集聚和竞争以及人才状况。它们共同作用于汤峪温泉旅游的发展。通过对这些因素的分析,对蓝田汤峪温泉旅游的进一步开发具有重要的现实意义。     

浅谈低温热水系统的设计及选择

随着经济的发展,人民生活水平不断提高,人们对室内的环境质量提出了更高的要求。低温热水地板辐射采暖系统卫生条件好,可供选择的热源广泛,能够为人们营造一个舒适的热环境,是一种较理想的采暖方式。     

Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility： Evidence from China

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China＇s economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, informing future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors.