Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?

The objective of this paper is to determine the best predictor of equity market crashes by focusing particularly on volatility and market liquidity. In finance, volatility has traditionally been regarded as the best measure of market risk. However, this paper shows that the forecast value of market liquidity, in particular our modified calculated market depth, predicts equity market crashes much more accurately than does the forecast values of EGARCH or Implied Volatility.     

A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations.     

Nonparametric estimation of distribution functions

Summary Using Silverman and Young’s (1987) idea of rescaling a rescaled smoothed empirical distribution function is defined and investigated when the smoothing parameter depends on the data. The rescaled smoothed estimator is shown to be often better than the commonly used ordinary smoothed estimator.     

Model-based control charts in phase 1 statistical process control

In this paper, a general method of constructing control charts for preliminary analysis of individual observations is presented, which is based on recursive score residuals. A simulation study shows that certain implementations of these charts are highly effective in detecting assignable causes.     

资源型城企物流耦合系统的系统动力学模型及其应用

从资源型企业拥有的物流资源优势出发，构建了资源型企业物流与资源型城市物流耦合系统，埘资源型城企物流耦合进行系统动力学模型设计，建立了耦合系统的系统动力学模型．通过对济宁市和兖州矿业集团的实际情况进行模拟和运行结果分析。从物流角度为资源型企业下一步的转型和发展提供了参考。     

翻译过程思维模式的理性探索

研究翻译过程就是探讨双语转换的认知心理过程,以揭示其思维规律。拟建的翻译模式整合Van Dijk的话语宏观结构理论和Neubert与Shreve的“虚构译本”观点,将七个语篇特征视为译者在解码与构码过程中作调整和变通的参数,旨在动态描述翻译过程。     

一类变质性物品的最优生产-库存策略

讨论了需求是时间的连续函数、允许缺货且缺货完全回补、变质率为常数、补货率有限的变质性物品在有限计划期内的生产-库存策略。同时证明了最优生产-库存策略的存在和唯一性,并给出了求最优策略的算法和算例。     

喷粉桩在广州地区软基处理中的应用

文章通过分析喷粉桩工作原理,总结广州地区的经验,对喷粉桩的设计提出了见解。     

Three Corrected Score Tests for Generalized Linear Models with Dispersion Covariates

We develop three corrected score tests for generalized linear models with dispersion covariates, thus generalizing the results of Cordeiro , Ferrari and Paula (1993) and Cribari-Neto and Ferrari (1995) . We present, in matrix notation, general formulae for the coefficients which define the corrected statistics. The formulae only require simple operations on matrices and can be used to obtain analytically closed-form corrections for score test statistics in a variety of special generalized linear models with dispersion covariates. They also have advantages for numerical purposes since our formulae are readily computable using a language supporting numerical linear algebra. Two examples, namely, iid sampling without covariates on the mean or dispersion parameter oand one-way classification models, are given. We also present some simulations where the three corrected tests perform better than the usual score test, the likelihood ratio test and its Bartlett corrected version. Finally, we present a numerical example for a data set discussed by Simonoff and Tsai (1994) .     

焦炉集气管压力自动控制系统的开发与应用

文章通过对焦炉煤气集气管压力系统的分析研究,建立了控制系统的集气管压力协调控制方案,使得系统在传统PID控制的基础上,能够按照系统实际运行状况智能选择控制策略。