警惕通缩风险,完善宏观调控

当前我国经济已面临较大的通货紧缩风险,本文分析了我国通货紧缩风险的成因,并提出了完善宏观调控,应对通缩风险的政策建议。主要观点是:经济下行、高杠杆率、资产价格下跌、产能过剩、人民币汇率贬值预期、国际大宗商品价格中长期颓势等均是形成我国通缩风险的重要成因,应在处理好需求端管理和供给侧改革的关系的基础上,实施更加积极的财政政策和更加有效的货币政策,促进结构性改革尽快显出实效,并加强宏观调控政策的国际协调来妥善应对通缩风险。     

通货膨胀与物价目标

针对近年来全国各界对通货膨胀的关切和“物价总水平基本稳定”的提法,本文认为有些认识和思路值得反复理清,包括：如何界定通货膨胀及如何看待通货膨胀;通货膨胀与经济增长如何匹配;中国可能期望的,也是难以避免的通货膨胀率是什么水平。文章提出治理通货膨胀要服从核心任务,应建立现实的通货膨胀观念,并在对保持物价总水平基本稳定的提法进行多视角诠释的基础上,给出了控制物价的几点政策建议。     

Does deflation affect household spending? The case of the Netherlands

This article investigates the impact of deflation on real private consumption and residential investment by Dutch households during the 1980–2013 period. We estimate theoretically founded consumption and investment equations and show that a fall in the general price level significantly negatively affects both growth in real consumption and residential investment. The impact on residential investment is more delayed, but stronger.     

中国输出了“通货紧缩”或“通货膨胀”?

本文首次采用最新发展的有向无环图等技术方法,对中国是否输出通货紧缩以及是否输出通货膨胀这一问题展开综合性、系统性的研究。研究结果表明,在通货膨胀的国际传递中,作为世界第一大经济实体的美国发挥着主导作用,与此同时,无论是在中国通货紧缩时期还是在通货膨胀时期,中国对各主要贸易伙伴国物价水平的冲击均十分微小,因此,中国并非全球通货紧缩或通货膨胀的引发因素。在此研究过程中,最新发展的有向无环图技术等方法的综合运用,在很大程度上增强了本文分析结论的可靠性与合理性。     

论理性预期理论的合理性

作对理性预期理论进行了较全面的分析，指出这一假说理论上的合理性。有效市场理论及国外一些国家在治理通货膨胀方面的实践均是理性预期理论与实践较完善的结合。作把理性预期理论当作一种工具，尝度着用这一理论对我国经济现状进行了分析，同时给出了政策性的建设。     

国债税收平滑路径、我国国债与税收关系背景和取向分析

本分析了税收平滑在我国的适用情况，通过我国国债和税收政策的演变和背景，我们认为税收平滑在我国一直没有存在的可能性，因此，当期不能简单地将国债增发和减税作为积极财政政策的两个互为补充手段。我国税收征收空间分析应侧重税收经济效应自身，财政税收政策的调整可平稳过渡为国债税收平滑路径的建立做准备。     

中国结构性通缩中的周期性与结构性问题

2012-2016年间,我国CPI和PPI走势呈现长期背离分化走势,整体表现出明显的结构性通缩特征。本文将外部冲击、产能过剩及巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应相结合,构建符合中国国情的结构性通缩分析框架。通过深入分析和实证检验发现,在此期间中国的结构性通缩是由于大宗商品价格波动、国内外经济形势等周期性因素,以及产能过剩、巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应等结构性因素综合作用的结果,其中周期性因素是诱因,结构性因素是主因。未来需在保持稳健货币政策的同时,更加注重供给侧结构性改革,在优化结构方面进行政策布局,改善供给侧环境与机制,激发微观主体活力,全面提高全要素生产率,实现产能过剩部门的市场出清和经济结构的优化调整。     

Raising an inflation target: The Japanese experience with Abenomics

This paper draws from Japan׳s recent monetary experiment to examine the effects of an increase in the inflation target during a liquidity trap. We review Japanese data and examine through a VAR model how macroeconomic variables respond to an identified inflation target shock. We apply these findings to calibrate the effect of a shock to the inflation target in a new-Keynesian DSGE model of the Japanese economy. We argue that imperfect observability of the inflation target and a separate exchange rate shock are needed to successfully account for the behavior of nominal and real variables in Japan since late 2012. Our analysis indicates that Japan has made some progress towards overcoming deflation, but further measures are needed to raise inflation to 2 percent in a stable manner.     

Explaining inflation in the period of quantitative easing in Japan: Relative-price changes,aggregate demand,and monetary policy

Concentrating on the period of quantitative easing in Japan, this paper reexamines the correlation between the asymmetry of sectoral relative-price changes and the aggregate inflation rate. This correlation is widely interpreted as evidence that short-run inflation is determined by supply-side factors; however, we study whether, in addition to the inflation rate, monetary policy and aggregate demand explain it. Using producer price index data, we show, first, that the positive and significant effect of relative-price change asymmetries on inflation is not robust with respect to various indicators of asymmetry. Second, using a VAR framework, we find that aggregate demand robustly affects the measures of asymmetries, which raises doubt about whether they can be interpreted as pure supply-side indicators. Third, in addition to the indirect effect via measures of asymmetries, demand directly affects inflation. Thus, we reject the claim that the recent disinflation/deflation period in Japan can be understood as primarily a supply-side phenomenon and suggest that the main driving force was demand, whereas supply and monetary policy were of lesser importance.     

美国第四轮量化宽松政策的实施背景、影响及中国的对策

为了刺激经济增长、降低就业率和防止通货紧缩等,美联储推出了第四轮量化宽松货币政策。如果承诺机制、资产负债表扩张机制和资产负债表结构改变机制等传导机制能够发挥作用,那么第四轮量化宽松货币政策可以通过金融稳定效应、经济刺激效应、财政效应和退出效应等实现非常规货币政策操作的预期。美联储推出的第四轮量化宽松货币政策势必会带来一定的影响,如美元资产缩水、大宗商品和原材料上涨、全球性的货币性通货膨胀、汇率战争和全球性的财富再分配效应等。为了应对QE4带来的影响,中国需要从外汇资产管理、通货膨胀预期管理、人民币汇率机制、货币政策制定等方面做出相应安排。