构建适应中国特色应急管理需求的财政治理体系

“坚持总体国家安全观”是党的十九大报告关于国家发展战略的基本要求。以习近平同志为核心的党中央对应急管理工作高度重视,积极改革应急管理机构设置,加快构建“全灾种、全方位、全过程”的国家综合应急管理体制。同时,财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,财政治理现代化是应急管理体制现代化的先决条件之一。目前我国应急管理的理论研究较少嵌入财政治理机制的影响。本文梳理了国内外应急管理的相关治理理论,结合我国应急管理体制改革的现实需求,分析了当前我国应急管理中财政治理的现状,构建了我国应急管理中财政治理的政策体系模型,并提出了相应财税政策建议。     

Robust scheduling for large scale evacuation planning

It is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to reduce the evacuation time in a disaster situation. The negative impact of large scale disasters can be mitigated by proactive and efficient (time optimal) evacuation planning. The present study aims to develop strategies for public transit-based evacuation for better control and reduced congestion. Mathematical models are formulated for both strategic and operational aspects of evacuation planning to result in efficient, optimal evacuation. The study also presents methods to manage the external environment uncertainties, in particular, evacuation demand uncertainty, by providing robust solutions. To test the efficacy of the models, a case study for a radiological accident in a nuclear plant in India is presented. The results of the case study demonstrate that the models can provide live, efficient and robust results during actual emergencies in acceptable time.     

Evaluation of new first response initiatives in emergency services

By training and equipping human resources from other public service sectors than emergency response, to act as first responders, it is possible to reduce the first response times at a low cost. Before launching such an initiative, it is however important to evaluate the potential benefits. In this work, a method for doing this kind of evaluation is developed and applied to a potential initiative, utilizing fire service day personnel as new first responders. By developing a smartphone application and performing an experiment, sending alerts to potential first responders, and combining this with expert reviews of the possible value of their contribution, it is possible to estimate the response time reductions, as well as the monetary benefits of the initiative. The results show that there is a monetary benefit, even with a low number of new first responders, but that it is highly dependent on how quickly they can start travelling towards the emergency site.     

重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制研究

在突发事件应急管理过程中，科技研发支撑作用十分关键，亟需建立突发公共卫生事件科研应急体系长效运行机制。基于科技研发应急体系的复杂性、适应性特征，从主体属性和体系架构两个层面入手，分析重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系的复杂适应系统特征，运用复杂适应系统理论模型和动态闭环螺旋模型，研究重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制。研究发现，重大突发公共卫生事件背景下，科技研发应急体系具有复杂适应系统的7个基本特征，是典型的复杂适应系统；科技研发应急体系中，科研攻关专家组、诊疗医院、科技部门等科研主体具有各自内部模型，并通过6大标识进行聚集；科技研发应急体系存在事件—需求引导、主体协同、资源交互、成果转化机制。同时，新冠病毒肺炎疫情应对实践表明，疫情防控救治进程中科技研发应急体系存在并遵循上述运行机制。     

Minimising emergency response time of ambulances through pre-positioning in Dhaka city,Bangladesh

This study conducted a large-scale survey in Dhaka, Bangladesh; the survey involved 95 major hospitals, more than 3000 emergency room patients, and 2 of the largest ambulance operators. Currently, most ambulances are parked within the vicinity of hospitals and are either dispatched or fetched by the acquaintances of the patient on demand, resulting in lengthy round trips. Reducing the response time of ambulances would certainly improve the emergency service, and pre-positioning of the ambulances could be a solution to reducing the response time. This study used two approaches to address the problem. First, the location-allocation problem was solved to find the optimal number of ambulance locations by maximising the demand coverage. Second, separate location-allocation for the peak and off-peaks, using K-means clustering, was applied to systematically optimise the ambulance positioning in small clusters near demand points. These approaches could substantially improve the existing emergency response time. Distributing ambulances near demand points yielded greater improvements in response time than when the ambulances are stationed near hospitals.     

A model for planning locations of temporary distribution facilities for emergency response

We propose a network flow model for dynamic selection of temporary distribution facilities and allocation of resources for emergency response planning. The model analyzes the transfer of excess resources between temporary facilities operating in different time periods in order to reduce deprivation. Numerical analysis shows that the location of temporary facilities is determined by the demand and supply points. This work contributes to the emergency response planning that requires a quick response for the supply of relief materials immediately after a disaster hits a particular area.     

数字化赋能视角下突发公共事件应急管理系统研究——以新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情为例

基于应对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情治理的实践背景，以数字化赋能理论为分析视角，从结构赋能、资源赋能和心理赋能3个层面提出数字化赋能应急管理的内在机制。在此基础上，结合“共同治理”和“元治理”理念，对数字化赋能情境下突发公共事件合作治理系统目标、构成主体和运作机制进行探索性研究。结合案例探讨公民参与、数字化赋能如何进一步提升国家治理能力，对我国新时期应急治理体系完善和治理能力现代化建设具有一定启示意义。     

Stochastic optimization for investment in facilities in emergency prevention

A coordinated approach is developed to integrate three preventive measures (i.e. building reinforcement, reinforcement of road networks, and facility location of relief supplies), with the objectives of minimizing budgets and risk-induced penalties. The Conditional Value-at-Risk is employed as a decision-making tool to evaluate diverse decisions of prevention based on the degree of risk aversion. Based on a real-world case of an earthquake, a series of scenarios were designed, and the applicability of the proposed model was studied. The coordinated approach for investing preventive measures is cost-efficient in helping reduce the impact of disaster on society.     

Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan

Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten “national food security” in the events of such shocks as crop failure and embargoes. Trade liberalization is expected to make the Japanese economy more dependent upon food imports and, thus, more susceptible to these risks. Using a computable general equilibrium model with a Monte Carlo simulation, we quantify the welfare impacts of productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little evidence of Japan suffering from such shocks.     

德国煤矿安全生产管理的经验及启示

近年来，虽然我国煤矿安全生产在稳步好转，但是，仍然面临严峻的形势，重特大事故仍时有发生。尤其是与发达国家德国相比，我国的煤矿安全生产管理还有待加强与改善。所以，本文试图提出合理地借鉴德国的煤矿安全生产管理经验，以推进和完善我国的煤矿安全生产。