垄断与通货膨胀:理论与证据

本文从微观层面构建多维状态非线性系统理论模型,应用非线性模型预测控制方法研究了垄断与通货膨胀之间的关系。理论分析表明,垄断与通胀存在明显的正向关系。本文进一步应用变系数半参数估计方法为上述理论预期提供了经验支持,并发现我国在生产效率较低的行业中,垄断会导致显著的通胀效应,但这种效应在生产效率较高的行业中则明显减弱。上述结论对我国当前“下限保增长、上限防通胀”的宏观调控目标具有重要的启示意义。     

Using nonlinear model predictive control for dynamic decision problems in economics

This paper presents a new approach to solve dynamic decision models in economics. The proposed procedure, called Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), relies on the iterative solution of optimal control problems on finite time horizons and is well established in engineering applications for stabilization and tracking problems. Only quite recently, extensions to more general optimal control problems including those appearing in economic applications have been investigated. Like Dynamic Programming (DP), NMPC does not rely on linearization techniques but uses the full nonlinear model and in this sense provides a global solution to the problem. However, unlike DP, NMPC only computes one optimal trajectory at a time, thus avoids to grid the state space and for this reason the computational demand grows much more moderately with the space dimension than for DP. In this paper we explain the basic idea of NMPC, give a proof concerning the accuracy of NMPC for discounted optimal control problems, present implementational details, and demonstrate the ability of NMPC to solve dynamic decision problems in economics by solving low and high dimensional examples, including models with multiple equilibria, tracking and stochastic problems.