Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century

Abstract

This article investigates the correlates of diversification away from oil and natural gas dependence in the context of the twenty-first century resource boom (and bust). In a sample of 40 oil- and gas-dependent economies, the majority showed significant sectoral diversification of GDP, but exports remained highly concentrated in fuel exports. Regression analysis indicates that countries that began the boom with higher levels of oil and gas dependence, poorer countries, and those with significantly larger- or smaller-than-average populations were more successful in diversifying their GDP during the commodities boom. Governance matters – more effective, capable bureaucratic structures are associated with greater GDP diversification away from oil and gas – though the effects are not uniformly positive. For any given level of government effectiveness, stronger rule of law is associated with less GDP diversification. Education appears to affect GDP and export diversification differentially. Consistent with endogenous growth theory, countries with more educated populations saw greater growth in their nonresource sectors than countries with less educated populations, though education is associated with greater export concentration. Internal economic diversification in the twenty-first century has been less a matter of policy formation and implementation, and more a matter of factors that shape the policy-making environment.     

石油金融：融合态势与中国发展战略

随着现代经济的发展,石油与金融的结合越来越紧,石油金融化趋势日益凸显。因此,为应对国际石油价格的未来走势,保障中国金融体系和中国经济的安全和长期稳定发展,中国迫切需要制定石油金融体系。新形势下中国石油金融体系构建的战略取向为：多层次构建石油交易市场体系;多渠道营造石油银行系统;多途径形成石油基金组合;多方位灵活运用石油外汇等。     

从众行为机制下的动态噪声交易模型

考虑到在实际市场中市场结构（即基本面投资者与噪声交易者在市场中所占的比例）也会随时间变化,本文基于从众行为机制对市场结构的动态演化过程（即两类异质投资者的信念扩散过程）进行了深入的讨论,并对DSSW模型进行了动态扩展。首先,运用群体压力原理来刻画从众转移概率,考虑了从众机制的线性与非线性两种模式,并对这两种模式进行了综合的对比分析。其次,将市场结构的从众演化机制嵌入到DSSW模型之中,考虑了认知偏误方差的ARCH效应,并通过动态随机模拟讨论了在牛市情绪起初在市场上占优的背景下风险资产均衡价格的动态演化过程及特征,运用多种统计方法综合检验了资产价格投机泡沫发生的机率和强度。结果表明,在非线性从众模式下,资产价格投机泡沫发生的机率以及投机泡沫的强度要远远大于线性从众模式。     

Markup pricing in petroleum refining:: A multiproduct framework

This paper describes a structural model of markup pricing under joint production with quasi-fixed inputs of capital, labor, and inventories. The price–cost markups are functions of the inverse price elasticity of demand, an industry average conjectural variation elasticity, and the inventory to sales ratio. Our empirical findings suggest significant markups over marginal cost that differ considerably by product. This study also estimates the elasticities of markups with respect to supply and demand shocks.     

HSE走进中国石油

企业管理水平的好坏直接影响着企业的经济效益,运用HSE管理能提高企业管理水平,HSE管理模式将健康,安全,环境三者视为一个有机的整体。HSE管理认为人的安全是第一位的,人是创造财富的原动力,是企业的最大财产,HSE管理体系强调的是“蝴蝶效应”。     

浅析影响科技成果转化的几个不利因素--以华东石油局为例

本文以华东石油局科技成果应用转化情况为例，分析研究了影响科技成果转化的因素和差距，提出了缩小差距，提高科技成果转化率的相应措施。     

不同萃取试剂检测羽绒残脂率的差异性分析

选用乙醚、二氯甲烷和石油醚作为羽绒残脂率的萃取试剂,对3种试剂检测结果进行了比对分析。结果显示：二氯甲烷检测结果高于乙醚的检测结果,而石油醚的检测结果低于乙醚的检测结果。从统计学角度分析得出这两种试剂的检测结果与乙醚的检测结果都存在显著性差异,二氯甲烷和石油醚无法直接作为乙醚萃取的替代性试剂。     

石油贸易、石油安全与我国的对策

石油对我国经济和国家安全至关重要。自从1993年我国成为石油净进口国以来,我国石油对外依存度逐年上升。自2003年后,国际石油价格爆涨,我国石油安全比以往任何时候都更危险。同时,我国石油贸易还存在越贵越买的问题。本文分析了我国石油安全形势,认为我国石油安全已经处于危险状态,在此基础上,进一步提出了提高我国石油安全和改善石油贸易的建议。     

Technology adoption in response to changes in market conditions: Evidence from the US petroleum refining industry

This paper analyzes the determinants of the levels and rates of technology adoption for petroleum refineries that survived the period 1980–1989, during which the conditions of product demand and crude oil supply changed significantly. Regression models are specified to investigate the growth of technology-related capacity, the growth of technology complexity, and the rates of adoption estimated from a diffuse model of technology use. Both levels and rates of adoption are hypothesized to be affected by refinery size, regulatory status, elements of local markets, and geographical factors. Empirical results generally suggest that compared with the supply-side factors of crude oil sources and regulatory subsidies, refinery size and demand-side factors, such as total consumption, consumption growth and fluctuation, and changes of the consumption mix, are responsible for the most part of the determination of technology adoption for refineries surviving the 1980s.     

Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model

We develop a model for economic growth applicable to a group of countries, constituting around half of the gross global production, that have been consistently “catching up” to the US since 1960 or so. This group can be termed “the convergence club.” The model has a theoretical basis developed in other publications (cited), but the present work is essentially empirical. It demonstrates that there is a very strong correlation between “catchup” growth, with respect to the US, and an energy proxy (EP). The energy proxy that works best is a linear combination of domestic electric power consumption petroleum (oil) consumption, per capita, compared to the US levels. The results presented here do not constitute a theory of growth, but they are consistent with theory presented elsewhere. On a practical level, we argue that consistent “catchup” trends over the past 40 years can safely be extrapolated for a few more decades for scenario construction purposes. We also believe that the observed catchup trends can be regarded as “potential” mid-term or long-term growth trajectories for transition economies and others that have recently been adversely affected by conflict or mismanagement.