Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHINA: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY OF THE ‘TURNING POINT’ DEBATE

Has the Chinese economy approached the ‘Lewisian turning point’ that marks the ending of the initial phase of industrial transformation fuelled by surplus labour? In this paper we undertake an interpretative survey of the literature on this issue, in the context of China's labour market conditions prior to the reforms and structural change of the past three decades. The available evidence is mixed, and our assessment makes a strong case for probing institutional constraints to labour mobility from an economy‐wide perspective, going beyond the confines of the rural economy.     

Surplus distribution and characteristics of social enterprises: Evidence from microfinance

The issue of surplus distribution has hardly been analyzed in the context of the social economy. This paper highlights the main drivers of distribution between various stakeholders of microfinance institutions (MFIs), which are an example of social enterprises. We focus on three major variables: size, governance structure and subsidies. Our results show that the size of the institution is the main indicator of the surplus that the organization keeps as a self-financial margin. Moreover, MFIs with a cooperative ownership structure allocate a larger part of their surplus to their employees, whereas non-profit organizations and shareholder-firm MFIs do not allocate their surplus in a significantly different way among their main stakeholders. Finally, we do not find any clear-cut effect of subsidies on the surplus allocation process.     

我国上市公司大股东与中小股东企业剩余分配不均衡的权力解读--兼论我国上市公司中小投资者利益保护机制

真实经济中存在大量的大股东利益侵占现象,本文认为,这是股东经济权力天然非对等的必然结果.本文从放松股东为同一性质主体假定和股东间非对等经济权力入手,建立企业剩余分配的博弈模型,推演出大股东侵占中小股东利益过程和实现机制,指出通过控制权实现利益侵占是市场失灵的必然结果,市场机制本身无法解决.     

Ruin Problems for Phase-Type(2) Risk Processes

In this paper we consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times have a phase-type(2) distribution, a distribution with a density satisfying a second order linear differential equation. We consider some ruin related problems. In particular, we consider the compound geometric representation of the infinite time survival probability, as well as the (defective) distributions of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and of the deficit at ruin. We also consider explicit solutions for the infinite time ruin probability in the case where the individual claim amount distribution is phase-type.     

外贸顺差与通货膨胀

在G函数这个理论范式里,融入描述货币固定数量的约束条件,依据经济运行中必定遵循的固定替代弹性规律,借助对偶理论,可以得出关于通货膨胀的定义。这个定义是真实的和精确的,它的发现可以为进一步的有关特殊性分析奠定基础。在一般经验水平上,出于对症状的观察和诊断,对通货膨胀曾产生过若干种猜想和推测。其中,将外贸顺差推断为通货膨胀的主要原因,便是其中之一。在关于通货膨胀的一般科学定义里,可以对此特殊推断做出审视和分析。从市场分解的角度来看,要达此目的,首先需要得出能耦合国际贸易的初始结构,再融入货币固定数量的约束条件,最后归入关于通货膨胀的分析路径。由于G函数的形式就是一个有约束的贸易函数,进行市场分解是很容易的。因此,要达到这样的目的也是很容易的。     

论“多余人”奥涅金超越的悲剧必然性

＂多余人＂是十九世纪上半叶俄国文学中独特的文学现象。普希金的《叶甫盖尼.奥涅金》塑造的奥涅金开启了占据俄国文学重要地位的＂多余人＂形象。本论文将从＂超越＂的角度分析这个＂多余人＂鼻祖奥涅金的悲剧性。悲剧精神是一种超越精神,没有超越就没有悲剧。论文从奥涅金超越的动因和超越最终失败的原因两个方面分析＂多余人＂奥涅金悲剧的必然性。     

基于索洛余值法的装备制造业原始创新能力对经济增长的贡献率测度

通过引入索洛余值法并建立我国装备制造业生产函数模型,对1999-2009年我国装备制造业的科技进步贡献率进行测度和分析。结果表明:科技进步因素在装备制造业经济增长中日显重要,我国装备制造业单纯依赖于资本并不能取得长足发展,只有不断提高创新能力、尤其是原始创新能力,才能实现可持续发展。     

浅谈对人民币汇率选择的正确认识

本文分析了人们对人民币汇率的认识误区以及我国作为债权国的特殊性,指出人民币之所以采取相对固定的汇率制度,并非为了增加出口而人为操纵汇率,而是为了减轻我国私人部门持有外币资产的风险,从而在一定程度上平衡我国积累的贸易顺差。结合这一特点,本文建议我国在继续稳定汇率的前提下采取措施减少顺差并刺激内需。     

1996-2005年中国农业剩余劳动力的估算——基于随机前沿模型的分析

本文采用随机前沿分析方法,利用省际面板数据对我国农业剩余劳动力的数量和比例进行了估算,并分析了剩余劳动力的变化趋势.根据本文的估算,1996年以来我国剩余劳动力没有明显的下降趋势, 目前我国农业剩余劳动力数量约为1亿人,约占全部农业劳动力的三分之一.农业剩余劳动力的变化与经济增长有着密切的联系,保持较快的经济增长速度,在非农部门创造更多就业机会,加快农业劳动力向其他部门的转移,是减少农业剩余劳动力的根本途径.