UNEMPLOYMENT, HYSTERESIS AND TRANSITION

In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.     

Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests

The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of Greek regional unemployment. The paper contributes to the literature assessing the stochastic properties of Greek unemployment rate in the context of the Greek regions by relying on various univariate and panel unit root tests. In particular, recently developed and more powerful panel unit-root tests that control for structural breaks, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the panel are employed. The results show that in all cases, after taking into account the fact that regional unemployment rates in Greece are subject to a structural break, the null hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected, indicating that the Greek regional unemployment series are non-stationary with the presence of a structural break.     

Post-SARS tourist arrival recovery patterns: An analysis based on a catastrophe theory

In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) ravaged many Asian countries. The outbreak of SARS caused a crisis in the tourism industry in many parts of Asia in that year. The purpose of this study is to examine and to compare the post-SARS recovery patterns of inbound arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and USA in Taiwan. Taking the cusp catastrophe model as its foundation, this study proposes a well-grounded approach to understanding the nature of the recovery processes and to explaining the difference between the recovery patterns displayed by arrivals from Japan and those from Hong Kong and USA. Implications regarding tourism promotion policies are drawn from the analysis.     

Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.     

Multiple equilibria and hysteresis in simple exchange models

This paper presents a simple two-good general equilibrium model of exchange in which demands are linear functions of relative prices. The solution of the model is represented by a cubic equation which can have either a single root which corresponds to a unique equilibrium price or three roots corresponding to multiple equilibria. The major properties of the model are that the relative price can make large discrete jumps in response to small parameter changes, and can display hysteresis. The paper shows how recent developments in non-linear methods can be used to examine the equilibrium properties of the model and establish conditions under which multiple equilibria can arise. The model is compared with that used by Shapley and Shubik.     

Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates*

This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.     

Understanding visitor–resident relations in overtourism: developing resilience for sustainable tourism

While almost all travel destinations seek to increase tourists, less attention is paid to balancing the growth in tourists against consequent visitor–resident irritants, which is essential if the objective is to make tourism more sustainable. Overlooking the carrying capacity of a destination is a common mistake committed when formulating travel visa policies. Overtourism is a term recently used to contextualize this potential hazard to many popular tourist destinations worldwide. One notable case in point is the “multiple-entry permit” policy implemented in Hong Kong which is causing conflicts between mainland Chinese visitors and Hong Kong residents. To investigate the overtourism phenomenon in Hong Kong we develop a hysteresis model. We hypothesized that ceteris paribus, the implementation of a “multiple-entry permit” policy would lead to an overwhelming growth in day-trippers and cause a permanently negative cointegrating relationship with residents’ sentiment. We confirmed our hypothesis by using the bound tests of Autoregressive-Distributed Lag models. Our findings suggest that policymakers should note that the deterioration in visitor–resident relations from overtourism may exhibit a significant hysteresis effect that will persist far beyond the original stimulus. “Developing resilience in tourism” and “exploring sustainable degrowth” are discussed as potential strategies for long-term tourism growth.     

一种新型的桥梁耗能减震装置性能研究

本文介绍了一种新的桥梁耗能减震装置，该装置工作元件由两部分组成：钢轨与钢管。文中给出了装置的构造，并对该装置进行了伪静力试验，对应变试验结果进行了详细分析，试验结果表明，该装置具有一定的使用价值。     

Yet another look at Léon Walras's theory of tâtonnement

Starting with a detailed discussion of the theorem of equivalent redistributions, Part 1 examines the central role played by the distributional neutrality of tâtonnement in Walras's pure theory of exchange. Part 2 extends this discussion to Walras's attempts at reaching a similar result when dealing with the successive versions of his theory of production before 1900. Part 3 contrasts Walras's and Edgeworth's respective technologies of exchange in order to demonstrate that a distributionally neutral tâtonnement is an intrinsic part of Walras's theory of exchange. Finally, and besides briefly summarizing the results, the conclusion develops the crucial connection between the necessity of a converging and distributionally neutral tâtonnement in pure economics with Walras's theories of property and justice.     

Diffusion in complex social networks

This paper studies how a behavior spreads in a population. We consider a network of interacting agents whose actions are determined by the actions of their neighbors, according to a simple diffusion rule. We find, using a mean-field approach, the threshold for the spreading rate above which the behavior spreads and becomes persistent in the population. This threshold crucially depends on the connectivity distribution of the social network and on specific features of the diffusion rule.