基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

我国上市公司财务困境预测模型分析——基于我国A股上市公司研究

基于我国A股市场上市的ST公司和相对应的非ST公司,用Logistic回归的进入法和逐步法对上市公司财务困境预测模型进行了比较分析,得出结论:无论是模型的有效性,还是模型的判断准确率方面,Logistic回归的进入法均优于逐步法。     

公司治理结构特征与困境公司恢复——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

目前学者们对公司财务困境的研究主要集中在事前的困境预测上,而对公司陷入财务困境后如何恢复研究较少。本文选取2005—2009年国内被ST的上市公司为研究样本,将研究样本分为逐渐走出财务困境的公司（一类公司）和一直处于财务困境中的公司（二类公司）,从董事会特征、股权结构以及管理层持股这三个方面来比较分析这两类公司在陷入财务困境之后的公司治理结构差异对困境恢复的影响。研究结果表明,公司处于不同的财务情况下,大股东们对公司绩效的影响是不一样的。当公司逐渐陷入财务困境的过程中,大股东们对公司绩效没有显著性的影响;而在公司逐渐摆脱财务的过程中,大股东们对公司绩效有显著的正面影响,此时的公司治理关键在于股权集中度,大股东在公司摆脱财务困境中起到了重要作用。     

基于公司特征的财务困境成本影响因素研究

基于对财务困境的形成及解决机制分析,财务困境成本的影响因素应包括资产特征、债务特征、产品特征和成长性等公司特征。实证研究表明:资产流动性、债务融资能力与财务困境成本负相关;资产专用性程度、债务结构的复杂程度、成长性与财务困境成本正相关。上述研究结论对于企业调整财务政策,降低财务困境成本具有指导意义,同时对于监管部门也有参考价值,即监管部门应针对具有不同公司特征的上市公司实行分类管理,提高监管效率。     

财务危机预警研究:存在问题与框架重构

现有财务危机预警成果没有表现出其能有效地服务于现实的能力,从而使人们产生对财务危机是否可以预警的信任危机。本文围绕财务危机预警的最基本目的——"预",分析了现有预警研究中存在的主要问题,并结合经济所呈现出的一些新的特点,如企业共生现象、金融工具的大量使用,从经济动力学的角度,提出了嵌入利益相关者行为的、以影响企业财务状况的两种基本力量为主要分析对象的财务危机预警框架和面向未来的敏感性分析方法。从理论上讲,新的框架可以把现有框架未予考虑的大量相关信息纳入进来,从而减少"伪危机"和"伪健康"现象,增强财务危机预测的针对性和准确性。     

Managerial discretion in distressed firms

This study examines the earnings management behaviour of 455 distressed US firms that filed for bankruptcy during the period 1986–2001. We examine (a) possible earnings management during the years prior to bankruptcy-filing, (b) whether qualified audit opinions cause conservative earnings management behaviour, (c) whether earnings management differs between firms that discontinued operations and firms that survived thereafter, and (d) the effect of earnings management on subsequent stock returns. Our results are consistent with downwards earnings management 1 year prior to the bankruptcy-filing. Results also show that (a) firms receiving unqualified audit opinions 4 or 5 years prior to the bankruptcy-filing event manage earnings upwards in subsequent years, consistent with Rosner [2003. Earnings manipulation in failing firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 20, 361–408], (b) more conservative earnings management seems to be related to the qualified audit opinions rendered in the preceding year, (c) firms with long-term negative accruals the year of bankruptcy-filing have a greater chance to survive thereafter, and (d) more pronounced (negative) earnings management is associated with more negative (next year's) subsequent returns.     

Distress rentals and the land rental market as a safety net: contract choice evidence from Tigray,Ethiopia

Rural households in the semiarid Northern Ethiopian highlands are net buyers of food. Crop failure due to erratic and unpredictable rainfall occurs frequently and leads to food shortages and income shocks. The renting out of land may be one of the coping responses of households exposed to shocks. We developed a theoretical household model for poor landlord households capturing their contract choice response to downside production shocks. We tested econometrically whether contract choice may depend on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. The multinomial logit model estimates show that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed‐rent contracts as a distress response to shocks, suggesting that fixed‐rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs, but at the expense of future incomes. We also found that fixed‐rent contracts are preferred when ex ante production risk is low, while sharecropping is more likely where production risk is high. Finally, we found an indication that the choice of a fixed‐rent contract as a coping response to shocks comes as a last resort after all other means of coping are exhausted.     

RISK‐COPING,LAND TENURE AND LAND MARKETS: AN OVERVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Over the last decades, a significant amount of literature has been published on informal risk‐coping in developing countries. In this paper, we review how informal risk‐coping has been addressed in the land tenure literature from two main perspectives: a first stream of research looks at how customary tenure and communal property perform key informal risk‐coping functions. A second subset of this literature analyses how informal risk‐coping creates land market imperfections through sharecropping or distress sales. The segmentation of the literature results from the Demsetzian property rights framework. Further research on risk‐coping and land tenure would benefit from examining recent work on property regimes.     

上市公司审计、财务困境与会计师事务所更迭——基于2000-2003年上市公司数据的实证研究

上市公司会计师事务所的更换越来越引起市场、投资者以及研究者的关注。本文主要基于国外的相关研究和中国股市及上市公司的特征，提出八个研究假设，然后构建Logistic回归模型，依据2000-2003年上市公司年报数据进行假设检验，主要考察非标准审计意见、审计者规模、财务困境和审计迟滞与会计师事务所更迭之间的关系。综合Logistic回归分析结果，基本上可以认为，在同等条件下，上年度及本年度被出具非标准审计意见、由规模小的会计师事务所审计、每股经营现金流为负(处于财务困境中)、上年度和本年度审计迟滞时间长的上市公司更有可能更换会计师事务所。同时，被ST以及公司规模小的上市公司更有可能更换会计师事务所。     

Performance and determinants of the Merton structural model: Evidence from hedging coefficients

We empirically test the effectiveness of the Merton (1974) model in measuring the sensitivity of corporate bond returns to changes in equity value. We study the main variables that affect the performance of the model and relax the assumption of normally distributed rates of return. Results show that less than 6% of the bonds have a hedge ratio within 10% from the model predicted value. Volatility, time to maturity, size, distress, liquidity and information quality are found to be significant determinants of the efficacy of the model.