Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe : A learning curve approach

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO₂ emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.     

Introducing errors in progress ratios determined from experience curves

Progress ratios (PRs) derived from historical data in experience curves are used for forecasting development of many technologies as a means to model endogenous technical change in for instance climate–economy models. These forecasts are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the progress ratio. As a progress ratio is determined from fitting data, a coefficient of determination R² is frequently used to show the quality of the fit and accuracy of PR. Although this is instructive, we recommend using the error σ_PR in PR, which can be directly determined from fitting the data. In this paper we illustrate this approach for three renewable energy technologies, i.e., wind energy, bio-ethanol, and photovoltaics.     

Demand by product characteristics: measuring solar cell quality over time

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of innovation quality as a success factor of companies that satisfy demand in government-subsidized science-based markets. This paper focuses on the Photovoltaic market in Germany as a case study. It carries out the analysis in three stages. First, the efficiency of photovoltaic product characteristics is examined using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Second, by means of a metric re-scaling approach, the technical improvement of solar modules offered on the German market is analyzed over time. Next, the results of the second stage are compared to demand growth (evolution of market shares). In conclusion, it can be shown that innovation quality in science-based markets is often an explanation of long-term growth, but occasionally a reduction of performance characteristics meets demand.

Market-based vs. grassroots citizen participation initiatives in photovoltaics: A qualitative comparison of niche development

Photovoltaic citizen participation initiatives (CPIs) receive increasing attention as a form of social innovation, contributing to a sustainable decentralized energy future. However, their ability to outgrow a protected niche characterized by feed-in tariffs, to regime level, is unclear. Drawing on qualitative interviews with key actors, the present study classifies Austrian CPIs in terms of them being market-based (profit-oriented business) or grassroots initiatives (civil-society based community activism), and compares these two types with respect to the three key processes of strategic niche management: actor network formation, learning, and expectations management. Market-based CPIs exhibit a relatively heterogeneous external actor network. They follow a policy of business development, engage in highly professionalized learning, and access a large, widespread customer base. In contrast, grassroots CPIs leverage a tightly-knit network of local actors, engage in informal learning and shared expectations. In some CPIs, market-based and grassroots motivations converge. Both types seem capable of achieving regime level, either through individual growth or by aggregation of multiple small-scale initiatives. As yet, few CPIs have outgrown their local niche status. This is mainly due to a lack of intermediary actors which may institutionalize knowledge and resources to support the foundation of new CPIs.