Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

U.S. food aid and American exports to recipient countries during the Cold War

In this article, we test to what extent the food aid granted by the U.S. during the Cold War was strategically motivated and used to promote U.S. interests. Using the data for the period 1971–1990, we investigate whether U.S. wheat aid had an effect on recipient countries’ total import of American products. The evidence we provide suggests a positive and robust relationship and thus it is consistent with the argument that U.S. food aid helped to create larger markets for U.S. producers.     

Modeling the time varying volatility of housing returns: Further evidence from the U.S. metropolitan condominium markets

This study extends the literature on modeling the volatility of housing returns to the case of condominium returns for five major U.S. metropolitan areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco). Through the estimation of ARMA models for the respective condominium returns, we find volatility clustering of the residuals. The results from an ARMA‐TGARCH‐M model reveal the absence of asymmetry in the conditional variance. Dummy variables associated with the housing market collapse unique to each metropolitan area were statistically insignificant in the conditional variance equation, but negative and statistically significant in the mean equation. Condominium markets in Los Angeles and San Francisco exhibit the greatest persistence to volatility shocks.     

美国联邦宪法基本人权保障的发展路径

从中世纪英格兰开始，再延续至北美殖民时代，对普通法体系建立和权力法案的形成沿革进行详细的阐述，以美国独立宣言、宪法前言及人权典章所构筑的宪法优先原则，透过美国联邦最高法院的审查，形成限制国家权力的框架，具体落实宪法规范之最高性及权力分立，借此保障基本人权。     

产业协同集聚影响全要素能源效率的“U”型关系再检验——基于集聚质量和深度的双重视角

利用2003—2019年省际面板数据,从集聚质量和深度的视角探究了产业协同集聚对地区全要素能源效率的影响,研究发现:产业协同集聚与地区全要素能源效率呈显著的"U"型关系;但相对于集聚深度而言,集聚质量的提高能够显著推动全要素能源效率较早越过拐点从而进入上升阶段。机制检验表明,当集聚质量和集聚深度均较低时,产业集聚会通过规模效应显著抑制全要素能源效率提升;而当集聚质量和深度均较高时,产业集聚则通过技术效应显著促进全要素能源效率提升。此外,对于不同地区而言,东部地区全要素能源效率能够率先摆脱产业协同集聚的抑制作用而进入上升阶段,中西部地区则需要在更高的集聚水平上实现全要素能源效率的攀升。     

混合所有制改革能有效化解国有企业产能过剩吗*

在深化国有企业混合所有制改革的政策背景下,相比于采用正向逻辑来研究国有企业与其他所有制企业产能过剩的成因与化解机制异同,本文通过逆向逻辑构造反事实因果推断,即国有企业经过混合所有制改革身份属性发生变更后产能过剩能否得到化解,来探究国有企业产能过剩的制度性成因。在实证分析中,本文通过PSM—多期DID方法识别了国有企业混合所有制改革对于其产能利用率的政策影响,分析了不同市场结构下国有企业规模对产能利用率影响的非线性关系,明晰了国有企业混合所有制改革化解产能过剩的作用途径,探究了产能过剩的制度性根源与衍生因素之间的传递效应。     

美国涉华诉讼对科技交流政策的影响和展望

美国司法部的“中国行动计划”实施三年以来,给中美两国正常的科技合作和学术交流带来了严重的影响和打击。近期美国一系列涉华诉讼引发了各界讨论,迫切敦促美国政府机构在保护知识安全的同时必须兼顾学术开放。美国最高科技政策决策机构决意出台实施指南,解决科技学术界的紧迫关切。中美两国领导人的线上会晤也就全球关切的议题进行交流合作,释放了积极信号,我国亦应鼓励科研人员继续进行跨国界的科学探索,努力促成和恢复中美在科技、人文等领域的正常交流合作。     

经理任期、声誉效应与过度投资*——U型理论与经验证据

声誉效应可以缓解代理冲突并抑制过度投资,但其效果却随任期期限临近而衰退。本文理论分析了企业过度投资与经理任期之间的U型关系。以中国A股上市公司为样本,运用门限自回归实证模型,进行实证分析。本文研究发现：作为声誉效应的代理变量,经理任期对过度投资的影响呈U型。在经理任期达到特定门限值42个月之前,经理任期与过度投资呈负相关关系。在门限值之后,声誉效应逐渐失去作用,随着经理任期的增加,过度投资程度提高。     

空中庭院与半围合式住宅感知密度的关联性研究——以广州万科峯境为例

在半围合式城市住宅中,感知密度是居住体验的重要环节。空中庭院能够缓解高密度环境中的拥挤感,优化其空间形态,是改善环境感知的建构基础。使用虚拟现实技术进行密度感知实验,能探讨与空中庭院形态相关的视觉因素——可视性和绿视率对环境感知密度的影响。将广州万科峯境作为原型建立15组以可视性与绿视率为变量的实验模型,通过采集受试者对不同环境感知密度的主观评价,反映实验样本的空间特征,进而分析主观评价与客观量化之间的关联机制。分析结果表明：半围合式城市住宅空中庭院的可视性与绿视率是影响居住环境感知密度的重要因素;呈线状分布的、具有视觉层次性的空中庭院更受大众青睐。