集体钉住汇率制与地区金融稳定——兼评人民币汇率制度改革

20世纪90年代以来,东亚地区是国际金融比较动荡的地区之一。麦金农主张东亚各经济体实行“集体钉住美元”制度,以保证地区金融稳定。从理论和实践分析,集体钉住汇率制有其内在的稳定机制,也有内源性的动荡缺陷,稳定性和脆弱性同存。目前东亚各国和地区非正式的共同“软钉住美元”,有一定的合理性;但从长远看,这种集体钉住美元制度难以维持。当前人民币汇率改革不会影响东亚地区的金融稳定,维持国内金融稳定,才能防止地区金融动荡。     

Quantitative micro-scale flood risk assessment in a section of the Trotuș River,Romania

This paper focuses on the estimation of direct damages caused by three flood scenarios with different return periods in the section Făgetul de Sus – Ghimeş – Palanca Pass of Trotuș River, with the aim of highlighting the need of improved land use plans. The damage for three land use classes (residential building, infrastructure and agriculture) were estimated using the damage curves developed by the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) as well as site specific maximum damage values. The data were processed with the help of the ArcMap 10.2 software and FloodRisk tool from QGIS software. Furthermore, the flood risk was assessed using the damage – probability curves, which associates the damage with the corresponding frequency of occurrence. This method was identified and adapted to the characteristics of the study area in order to develop a methodology of flood risk assessment that is answering the question: does the lack of land use plans increase the vulnerability and the flood damage? The results showed that the greatest damages are registered for the residential building land use class for a flood probability of 0.001. In this case the damages reach up to 60% on the scale range of deterioration factor, the total damage value being 2 million euros. For the same hazard probability the total registered damage value for roads is 7500 euro, for railways is around 12,000 euro, while for agriculture is around 84,000 euro. These results highlight the need of protection measures and land use plans development and implementation. Regarding the protection measures we consider that the egalitarianism would be the concept that should be applied in the study area and also an improved cooperation between government, specialized agencies and local authorities at local level would lead to a more efficient flood risk management process. The proposed methodology can be applied for micro-scale analysis, providing quantitative results regarding the flood damage and flood risk assessment. It includes a detailed vulnerability analysis of the elements-at-risk with the aim of developing a more comprehensive approach of flood risk assessment.     

Pre-positioning of relief items in humanitarian logistics considering lateral transhipment opportunities

The main objective of this study is to investigate the inclusion of lateral transhipment opportunities into the humanitarian relief chain and to examine the effect of different parameters on minimizing the average distance travelled per item while serving the beneficiaries. Direct shipment model (DT), lateral transhipment model (LTSP) and maritime lateral transhipment model (MLTSP) are developed and compared between each other by using a real life earthquake scenario prepared for the city of Istanbul by JICA (Japanese International Cooperation Agency). Developed mathematical models decide on the locations and number of disaster relief facilities, quantity of relief items to hold at those facilities, and quantity of lateral transhipment between the facilities. Vulnerability of the roads and heterogeneous capacitated facilities are also considered. It can be concluded that both LTSP and MLTSP models gave better results than DT model and lateral transhipment option helps beneficiaries to obtain relief items faster and with higher service level.     

我国商业银行体系脆弱性形成因素及应对策略

美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机迅速蔓延,并对世界经济体系和金融体系造成严重损害。我国商业银行体系脆弱性现况明显,本文从我国国有银行的现况进行分析,然后对其原因进行分析。介绍了因子分析的思想及方法,然后运用因子分析模型进行了数据分析。最后提出防范国有商业银行脆弱性的对策和建议。     

Living on the edge: Household vulnerability to food-insecurity in the Punjab,Pakistan

This study investigates the prevalence, sources and distribution of household vulnerability to food-insecurity in the Punjab, Pakistan. Applying a multilevel model on a large dataset of about 90,000 households, we find that the share of households at risk of becoming food-insecure (vulnerability) is higher than the share that is current food-insecure. Households in rural areas are least vulnerable. In contrast, residents of cities and urban areas experience high level of vulnerability that exceeds the average in the Punjab. The risk-induced vulnerability is higher than the structural-induced vulnerability and vulnerability to idiosyncratic shock is higher than vulnerability to covariate shocks. Findings imply that households in the Punjab are vulnerable not as a result of poor resource endowments but because of risk. The Pakistani government should go beyond mere observed food-insecurity to address the needs of the relatively larger population that is at risk of being food-insecure in the future.     

Assessing the role of network topology in transportation network resilience

The abstract representation of a transportation system as a network of nodes and interconnecting links, whether that system involves roadways, railways, sea links, airspace, or intermodal combinations, defines a network topology. Among the most common in the context of transportation systems are the grid, ring, hub-and-spoke, complete, scale-free and small-world networks. This paper investigates the role of network topology, and the topology’s characteristics, in a transportation system’s ability to cope with disaster. Specifically, the paper hypothesizes that the topological attributes of a transportation system significantly affect its resilience to disaster events. Resilience accounts for not only the innate ability of the system to absorb externally induced changes, but also cost-effective and efficient, adaptive actions that can be taken to preserve or restore performance post-event. Comprehensive and systematically designed numerical experiments were conducted on 17 network structures with some relation to transportation system layout. Resilience of these network structures in terms of throughput, connectivity or compactness was quantified. Resilience is considered with and without the benefits of preparedness and recovery actions. The impact of component-level damage on system resilience is also investigated. A comprehensive, systematic analysis of results from these experiments provides a basis for the characterization of highly resilient network topologies and conversely identification of network attributes that might lead to poorly performing systems.     

Why do some consumers shop in this pharmacy? A cross-check of vulnerable characteristics and store types

Research on vulnerable consumers remains unfailing in macromarketing and social marketing. Yet it is unclear how to operationalize the vulnerable consumers by demographics and further to this it is rarely touched how the vulnerable consumers defined by different measures make decision when choosing the place to shop especially in pharmacy retailing sector. The authors conduct a comparative study of variously-defined vulnerable consumers for their shopping store types in an urban Chinese city to investigate how people with distinct backgrounds develop their decision making rules and choose different types of retail pharmacies. This paper casts light on customer heterogeneity associated with different dimensions of vulnerability by using consumer demographics, and indicates that four dimensions of vulnerability exist as cognitive capability, social relations, behaviors, and the institutional protection in health-related sector. These four aspects of vulnerability play a significant role in identifying different shop selection patterns. Findings suggest that efforts to boost store patronage targeting on various consumer groups should have different strategies to reach consumers’ mindsets.     

城乡收入差距、民工失业与中国犯罪率的上升

本文利用1988—2008年省级面板数据研究后发现:首先,没有明显的证据表明省内城乡收入差距的扩大必然增加各省的犯罪率。其次,中国犯罪率的上升和"第五次犯罪高峰"的产生与城市登记失业率有关:一方面,它意味着民工失业率也可能在上升,城市居民和民工失业的增加都会直接推动犯罪率上升,而由于失业的民工缺乏最低生活保障和社会保险,他们会更加脆弱并更容易走向犯罪,因此会更容易推动犯罪率的上升;另一方面,城市失业率的上升还会推动地方政府采取更加歧视民工的就业政策来保护城市居民的就业,因而在犯罪率上升和犯罪高峰持续的过程中起到了推波助澜的作用。本文的解释对于理解中国经济社会的发展及制定降低犯罪率的公共政策提供了重要启示。     

Modeling cascade dynamics of railway networks under inclement weather

Understanding the cascade dynamics of delay propagation under inclement weather is crucial to proactive railway management. In this paper, we proposed a Switching Max-Plus System (SMPS) to model the delay propagation on railway networks, which extends the conventional MPS by incorporating multiple system matrices to capture the dynamic impacts of inclement weather. An algorithm based on the All-Paired Critical-Path (APCP) graph was developed to solve the SMPS, which calculates secondary delays without backtracking the precedent events. The proposed model and its solution algorithm were validated using discrete-time simulations on both artificial and empirical networks. The robustness of railway services was also analyzed using the concepts of vulnerability and diffusivity.     

乡镇企业的环境污染问题及其对策分析

乡镇企业的环境污染问题其产生原因是多方面的,主要有乡镇企业地理环境的自身脆弱性,相关利益者的不作为以及乡镇企业的环境产权不明晰等原因,为此应该采取法律、行政、经济和教育等各种措施来加大对乡镇企业环境污染问题的治理。