Modeling cascade dynamics of railway networks under inclement weather |
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| Institution: | 1. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University of California Davis, 1 Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, United States;2. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Texas Tech University, 10th and Akron, Lubbock, TX 79409, United States;3. State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China;1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax NS, Canada;2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, MB R3B 2E9, Canada;1. Department of Mathematics, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada M5B 2K3;2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5;1. High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710025, PR China;2. Mailbox 150 extension 11, Baoji, Shaanxi, 721013, PR China;1. Department of Mathematics, Quynhon University, Binhdinh, Viet Nam;2. School of Engineering, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC 3217, Australia;1. Department of Computer Science & Engineering, IIT Kanpur, Kanpur, India;2. Department of Mathematics, US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, United States;3. Department of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States |
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| Abstract: | Understanding the cascade dynamics of delay propagation under inclement weather is crucial to proactive railway management. In this paper, we proposed a Switching Max-Plus System (SMPS) to model the delay propagation on railway networks, which extends the conventional MPS by incorporating multiple system matrices to capture the dynamic impacts of inclement weather. An algorithm based on the All-Paired Critical-Path (APCP) graph was developed to solve the SMPS, which calculates secondary delays without backtracking the precedent events. The proposed model and its solution algorithm were validated using discrete-time simulations on both artificial and empirical networks. The robustness of railway services was also analyzed using the concepts of vulnerability and diffusivity. |
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| Keywords: | Railway delay Railway schedule Timetable Vulnerability Robustness |
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