Migration decisions under ambiguity: Migration distance effects revisited

There is ample evidence that distance has a strong negative effect on migration. Despite its significance in migration decisions, scholars rarely explore the migration distance effect deeper than the first level of interpretation derived from the simple neoclassical theory of migration. This study revisits the migration distance effect in the spirit of Knightian distinction between risk and uncertainty. To this end, this study attempts to construct estimates of the risk premium migrants are willing to pay to avoid the risk associated with migration distance. The results show that the magnitude of the distance effect is not rationalized by risk aversion in the Arrow–Pratt sense (Arrow, 1965, The theory of risk aversion, Yrjo Jahnssonin Saatio, Helsinki, Finland, 90; Pratt, 1964, Econometrica, 32, 122). In particular, the risk premium demanded by distant rural residents is unjustifiably higher compared with that of those living closer to urban areas in their migration decisions. The results suggest that the migration distance effect is analogous to the equity home bias puzzle and the Ellsberg paradox in that the assumption of subjective expected utility can lead to seemingly irrational human behaviors. Some of the findings in this study shed light on the role of subjective aspects such as perception, confidence, and pessimism in migration decisions, which have been neglected in the literature.     

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa*

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low‐wage sending regions. Our new estimates of net migration for the countries of sub‐Saharan Africa show that exactly the same forces driving African across‐border migration are at work today. The results suggest that rapid growth in the cohort of potential young emigrants, population pressure on the resource base, and slow economic growth are likely to intensify the pressure for migration out of Africa and into high‐wage OECD countries over the next two decades.     

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure, and Government Policy

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.     

Public and Private Education in an Integrated Europe: Studying to Migrate and Teaching to Stay?

This paper investigates public and private choices between internationally applicable and country‐specific education when graduates are mobile. Human capital depends on innate skills and study effort with either type of education. It is shown that national governments provide too few students with internationally applicable education, and too many with country‐specific education. This effect is mitigated, but not entirely eliminated, by the introduction of a graduate tax, according to which graduates are required to pay part of their taxes to the country where they received their education, regardless of residence. However, private educational choices are socially optimal with suitably differentiated tuition fees.     

农村劳动力转移模型:基于中国制度背景的构造

本文在对经典的农村劳动力流动模型进行理论梳理的基础上,引入中国的制度变量,试图构建适合中国制度背景的农村劳动力转移模型,同时,运用经验事实对其作进一步的实证检验,并分析了模型的政策含义。     

城乡收入差距对城镇失业的影响及对策分析

当前我国城乡收入差距日益扩大引发了庞大的乡-城人口流动,在一定程度上加剧了城镇的高失业状况.正确认识这种状况,需要运用适当的理论,予以科学的分析.利用托达罗模型对此现象进行了理论分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对城乡收入差距加剧我国城镇失业问题进行了实证检验,最后提出了短期内利用新农村建设缓解我国城镇失业压力的政策措施及建议.     

农村剩余劳动力转移的理论、现状与政策建议

文章在论述农村剩余劳动力转移相关理论的基础上,阐述了我国农村剩余劳动力转移的现状,并提出相关的政策建议,倡导城镇化及发展劳动密集的第三产业,为农村剩余劳动力转移提供就业岗位。     

脱贫与经济增长:"贵州新现象"探析——贵州云南两省的比较研究

经济增长通常意味着贫困率的下降,然而,对于增长很慢的经济体或经济增长没有带动贫困率降低的案例,这种假设似乎并不成立.中国两个较为贫困省份的数据展示了这样一个谜题:贵州省的经济增长缓慢但农村贫困率的下降较为显著,对这一现象不妨称之为"贵州新现象";与此同时,云南省经济高速增长但贫困率下降较为迟缓.根据相关考察和统计数据的分析,交通、流动人口、旅游业和矿产业四个因素是解释这个谜题的关键.这四个因素在两个省的不同分布和构造解释了它们经济增长与贫困率下降关系中的不平衡性.     

中国劳动力市场的二元分割及其就业效应

我国的劳动力市场既有经济转型时期的非规范性，又有发展中国家二元经济和二元社会结构的特征，存在二元四级分割的情况。运用哈里斯-托达罗模型及成本-收益分析方法，可以考察我国二元四级市场上的劳动力流动状况及其就业效应。     

人口流动与城乡发展:探索发展中国家的经验

围绕发展中国家城乡二元经济结构下人口流动对城乡发展的影响,以及城乡发展对人口流动的作用,认识人口流动与城乡发展之间的关系,探讨人口城市化受城乡发展不平衡的影响及相应对策.