中国服务业结构变动与增长的关联分析

1991年以来我国服务业发展呈现出明显的结构变动特征。本文通过对我国服务业内部结构与服务业增长之间相关关系进行动态和静态的实证分析,得出结论认为我国四个层次服务业的合理发展次序应为三、一、二、四。我国第二、四层次服务业发展速度应低于第一层次服务业,第三层次服务业发展速度应高于第一层次服务业,目前我国第一层次服务业增长速度趋缓不利于拉动我国服务业的进一步增长。文章最后给出了结论与政策性启示。

Analysis on the Correlation between Changes of Service Sector Structure and Growth of Service Sector in China

The internal structure of service sector in China has changed a lot since 1991.This article makes some empirical analysis on the correlations between the change of structure of service sector and the growth of service sector in China and reach the conclusion that the developing sequence of service sector in China should be the third section、the first section、the second section and then the fourth section.The second and the fourth section in service sector should develop at a speed that is slower than that of the first section and the third section should develop at a speed that is faster than that of the first section.The constant fall of the developing speed of the first section will affect the growth of the service sector as a whole.This article gives some conclusions and tips in the end.