| 基于门限自回归模型的合肥高新区生命周期研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王俊超,.基于门限自回归模型的合肥高新区生命周期研究[J].技术经济,2010,29(6):29-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王俊超 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学,管理学院,合肥,230009 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省软科学研究计划项目"合肥高新区"二次创业"与创新体系建设研究"课题的资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将生命周期理论引入高新区经济发展研究中,通过定量方法评价其生命周期,运用门限自回归模型方法对合肥高新区1991—2008年经济综合指标增长进行研究,识别和检验高新区生命周期呈现的基本特征,并通过三区制门限自回归模型描述高新区经济周期波动,为高新区"二次创业"的全面提升提供理论和实践上的决策参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 门限自回归模型 生命周期 高新区 |
Research on Life-cycle of Hefei High-tech Zone Based on Threshold Autoregression Model |
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| Wang Junchao.Research on Life-cycle of Hefei High-tech Zone Based on Threshold Autoregression Model[J].Technology Economics,2010,29(6):29-34. |
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| Authors: | Wang Junchao |
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| Institution: | Wang Junchao(School of Management,HeFei Technology University,HeFei 230009,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces life-cycle theory into the study of the economic development in high-tech zone,evaluate life-cycle through the quantitative method,conducts a research on the growth of comprehensive economic indicators from 1991 to 2008 in hefei high-tech zone using the threshold autoregression model method,indentifies and tests the major characteristics of the life-cycle in high-tech zone and depicts economic cycle of high-tech zone using three-regimed threshold autoregression model.It provides comprehensive decision-making references theoretically and practically to the ＂second-development＂ in the high-tech zone. |
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| Keywords: | threshold autoregressive model life cycle high-tech zone |
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