我国通胀与经济增长放缓福利 成本的比较研究

经济理论和实践经验通常认为我国经济增长放缓的福利成本远高于通货膨胀的福利成本，因而“保增长”的重要性远高于“防通胀”。本文认为这一判断已经不再适用于我国当前情况，核心原因是当前家庭的财产积累水平较以往有了大幅度提高，通胀将通过财产再分配效应造成严重的社会福利损失。经过计算发现：在各组参数设定下，5%的通胀和经济增速下滑一个百分点所造成的社会总福利成本（对消费的补偿比例）分别平均是18%和59%；通胀福利成本与增长放缓福利成本之比平均为329%，相比之下，在不考虑财产再分配效应的计算方法中，该比例仅为约16%。这说明在中长期“保增长”和“防通胀”都具有重要的社会福利意义，因此宏观调控应该将二者都作为重要的政策目标。

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE WELFARE COST OF INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWDOWN IN CHINA

According to practical experience and academic research,it was generally believed that the most important objective of macro-control was not anti-inflation but to maintain growth.This paper concluded that this viewpoint was no longer applicable to the current situation of China.The family’s property had greatly increased,and inflation would cause serious welfare loss by the effect of property redistribution.According to calculation,the average welfare cost of inflation rate of 5% and the slowdown in economic growth by 1% were 1.75% and 5.86%.The average ratio between the two was 32.94%,while the ratio excluded property redistribution effect was only around 16%.These results indicated that both maintaining economic growth and anti-inflation played important roles in improving social welfare,which should be the important objectives of macro-control.