中国GDP增长与CPI:关系、均衡与“十二五”预期目标调控

通货膨胀率和经济增长率之间动态关系的认识是宏观调控的基础,然而,目前在线性和静态的分析框架内未能揭示出通货膨胀和经济增长的复杂动态关系。本文运用1996—2009年GDP增长率、CPI与M2增长率的季度数据建立我国经济增长与通货膨胀的非线性动力系统模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我国最优的季度GDP增长率和CPI,以及零通货膨胀的季度GDP增长率。总体上,我国经济增长与通货膨胀处在次优化的非均衡运行状态,两者呈现出同向性变动的特点。最优调控实验表明,仅调节M2增长率不能完全实现"十二五"调控目标。文章建议"十二五"期间要以调控GDP增长为导向,以从紧货币政策为基础,配合多种调控手段,形成强有力的联合调控机制,以确保GDP增长率和CPI目标的最优实现。

China’s GDP Growth and CPI:Relationship,Equilibrium and Target Control for the 12th Five-Year Plan

The dynamic relationship between inflation and economic growth is the basis for the macro-control , however,there isn’t a clear and valid result about the complex relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth in linear and static framework. This paper builds the inflation and GDP growth’s nonlinear dynamic system model (GDP-CPINLDS) based on Mar. 1996—Dec. 2009 GDP growth, CPI and M2 growth rate of quarterly data. The empirical results reveal that China’s optimal growth rate of GDP and CPI is 10.51% and 2.06%, and the GDP growth rate without inflation is 8.92%. As a whole,China’s economic growth and inflation stay in sub-optimal and non-equilibrium operation state, both moves towards the same direction. Optimal control experiments showed that the only control M2 growth rate can not be fully realized target, GDP growth must focus in order to achieve "the twelfth five-year-plan"target and to minimize social loss. Therefore,we recommend that GDP growth should be oriented to control, and tight monetary policy is based, at the same time, established joint control of a strong mechanism with a variety of means of control, to ensure that the GDP growth and CPI target to achieve precise in "the twelfth five-year-plan" period .