中国外汇储备与货币供给量的关系——基于双对数模型

2001年以来,持续的双顺差促使外汇储备量迅速积累,人民币升值压力增大,为了维持人民币汇率的稳定,政府不得不加大货币投放量来回笼外汇市场上过多的外汇。通过建立外汇储备和货币供给量(M1、M2)之间的双对数模型,进行实证分析得出结论:外汇储备的增加确实推动了中国货币供应量的增加,并且外汇储备变动给M1带来的影响大于M2。因此,应适当控制外汇储备规模消除外汇储备超额增长的制度性原因,完善货币政策工具,积极进行金融创新。

The Relation of Foreign Exchange Reserve and Currency Supplies

Since 2001,continued double favorable balance has urged the foreign exchange accumulate rapidly,and the pressure of revaluation of RMB increased.In order to maintain the stability of exchange rate,the government had to re-steam excessive foreign exchange through enlarging the currency.Through the Double Logarithm Model of foreign exchange reserve and M1,M2,we drew the conclusions: The increase of foreign exchange reserve truly impelled the increased supply of China currency;the change of foreign exchange reserve brings more influence to M1 than to M2.Therefore,we should suitably control the scale of foreign exchange reserve,eliminate the system reason which causes the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserve,perfect the monetary policy tool,carrying on the financial innovation positively.