川西南山区耕地面积变化及社会经济驱动力分析——以四川省雅安市为例

该文根据1996~2006年土地利用变更调查数据和社会经济统计数据,针对雅安市的耕地面积变化趋势进行了分析,并用主成分分析和聚类分析方法,对引起耕地面积变化的驱动力因素进行了研究。研究结果表明,近11年来雅安市耕地面积总体呈线性下降,经历了缓慢减少→增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少的变化过程,且人均耕地面积也呈线性下降趋势。以第一、二主成分为自变量、耕地面积为因变量建立的回归方程表明,耕地面积变化与社会经济发展的综合实力和规模以及活跃度密切相关;指标型聚类分析的结果表明,影响雅安市耕地面积变化的驱动力因子为粮食产量因子、交通因子、油料产量因子和人口与经济因子。

ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGES OF ARABLE LAND AREAS AND SOCIAL ECONOMIC DRIVEN FORCES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SICHUAN--Taking Ya'an City of Sichuan Province as an Example

According to the investigation data for the changes of land utilization and social economic statistic data from 1996 to 2006,this paper analyzes the changing tendency of arable land areas in Ya'an City and studies on the driven force element causing these changes by major element analysis and clustering analysis methods.The results show that during the past 11 years,arable land areas in Ya'an City was declining generally,experienced a changing procedure of slowly decreasing-increasing-rapidly decreasing-slowly decreasing;the arable land area per capita was also declining.The regressive equation established by taking first and second major elements as independent variable and arable land area as cause variable indicates that arable land area changes has close relation with the comprehensive strength,scale and activity of social economic development.The results from clustering analysis of target type indicate that the driven forces influencing changes of arable land areas in Ya'an City are genes of grain output,traffic,oilseed yield,population and economy.