| 我国石油消费需求预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王波.我国石油消费需求预测研究[J].中国市场,2009(15):14-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王波 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据1990—2007年的石油消费统计数据,利用偏最小二乘回归法(partial least-squares regression,PLS)建立了我国石油消费需求PLS回归预测模型。研究结果表明所建立的模型预测精度较高,能够满足实际需求,为我国制定石油生产、进口和储备计划、合理安排相关行业生产计划和调整产业结构提供重要决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 石油消费需求 PLS 需求预测 |
Research on China's Oil Consumption Prediction |
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| WANG Bo.Research on China's Oil Consumption Prediction[J].China Market,2009(15):14-17. |
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| Authors: | WANG Bo |
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| Institution: | WANG Bo (School of the Earth Sciences and Resources , China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the oil consumption statistics in 1990--2007, a China＇s oil consumption prediction model has been established with the help of the partial least -squares regression method （PLS） . The result shows that the prediction accuracy is satisfying and the model provide an important decision making basis for oil production, oil import and oil storage plans, arrangements of related industries production planning, adjusting the industrial structure. |
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| Keywords: | PLS |
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