| 基于分形理论的铁路客货运量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱子虎,吴华稳,翁振松,任民.基于分形理论的铁路客货运量预测[J].铁道运输与经济,2011,33(7):80-84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱子虎 吴华稳 翁振松 任民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 铁道部经济规划研究院运输咨询部,北京,100038
2. 铁道部信息技术中心,北京,100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 在阐述分形基本理论和分析铁路运输时间序列分形特性的基础上,基于变维分形理论对铁路客货运量进行预测。根据铁路运量分形预测原理及步骤,以全国铁路运量预测为例进行分析,计算得到铁路2012年、2015年、2020年的客货运量,以及2010—2020年的客货运量增长率,并对预测结果进行了具体分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 运量预测 分形理论 时间序列 |
Forecast of Railway Passenger and Freight Traffic Volume based on Fractal Theory |
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| ZHU Zi-hu,WU Hua-wen,WENG Zhen-song,REN Min.Forecast of Railway Passenger and Freight Traffic Volume based on Fractal Theory[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2011,33(7):80-84. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Zi-hu WU Hua-wen WENG Zhen-song REN Min |
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| Institution: | 1(1.Department of Traffic Volume Planning,Economic and Planning Research Institute,MOR,Beijing 100038,China; 2.Information Technology Center,MOR,Beijing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on analyzing the fractal basic theory and fractal characteristic of railway traffic time series,the railway passenger and freight traffic volume were forecasted by using variable dimension fractal theory.According to the fractal forecast theory and step for railway traffic,and by analyzing railway traffic volume forecast in China as example,the passenger and freight traffic volume in 2012,2015 and 2020 were calculated and its results were achieved,as well as the increase rate of passenger and freight traffic volume from 2010 to 2020.In the end,the forecast results were analyzed in detail. |
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| Keywords: | Railway Traffic Volume Forecast Fractal Theory Time Series |
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