| 北京市人地关系现状及预测——基于生态足迹和GM模型的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张远索,张占录,孟斌,朱海勇.北京市人地关系现状及预测——基于生态足迹和GM模型的分析[J].城市问题,2011(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张远索 张占录 孟斌 朱海勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京联合大学应用文理学院;中国人民大学土地管理系; |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部“211工程”三期子项目——中国特色的公共管理与公共政策学科平台建设 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用改进过的生态足迹模型对北京市的人地关系现状进行了分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型对其耕地面积和人口数量的未来变动趋势进行了预测。结果表明,北京市近十年来耕地生态足迹逐年增加,其中区域耕地生态足迹的变化幅度比人均耕地生态足迹的变化幅度大;耕地生态承载力逐年降低,其中人均耕地生态承载力的降幅较区域耕地生态承载力的降幅更加明显。耕地生态足迹与耕地承载力异向变化,加剧了生态赤字逐年加大的幅度。在此基础上提出了控制人口规模、提高耕地产出能力及保持耕地产品地区间流动性等措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态足迹 生态承载力 GM(1 1)模型 人地关系 北京市 |
Current situation and projects on Beijing's people and land relation:based on ecological footprint and GM Model |
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| ZHANG Yuan-suo , colleagues.Current situation and projects on Beijing's people and land relation:based on ecological footprint and GM Model[J].Urban Problems,2011(5). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yuan-suo colleagues |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Yuan-suo and colleagues |
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| Abstract: | This article analyzes the present situation of man-land relationship in Beijing by improved ecological footprint model and predicts the changing trend of cultivated area and population quantity in future by GM(1,1) model.The results show that the ecological footprint of cultivated land in Beijing increases year by year in recent ten years.The total change range is bigger than the change range of ecological footprint per capita.Ecological capacity of cultivated land in Beijing decreases year by year and ecol... |
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| Keywords: | ecological footprint ecological capacity GM(1 1) model man-land relationship Beijing City |
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