基于演化博弈的不安全行为的羊群效应研究

基于演化博弈理论,分析了高危行业员工跟随不安全行为的心理收益、生理收益和风险成本,不跟随时违反群体规范的成本,安全行为的收益,以及监管力度和法不责众的心理特征,从众心理等因素对不安全行为羊群效应的形成及演化的影响。研究结论表明,不安全行为羊群效应的产生与跟随不安全行为的收益及成本,监管力度等因素显著相关。并根据数值分析的结果,对不安全行为羊群效应的管控提出了建议,为安全生产中的群体不安全行为现象提供理论支持。

Research on Herding Effect in Unsafe Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game

This paper establishes an evolutionary game model to analyze the formation mechanism and influencing factors of herding effect in unsafe behavior by considering the psychological benefits, physiological benefits and risk costs of employees when they following unsafe behaviors, and the costs of violating group norms, the benefits of safe behavior when they are not following, and the power of supervision and the fluke mind that the law cannot be enforced when everyone is an offender. The research results show that the generation of herding effect in unsafe behavior is affected by a series of factors. Numerical analysis of the evolution of multiple equilibria shows that the benefits and costs of following unsafe behavior, supervision are significantly correlated with the generation of herding effect. Finally, based on the results of numerical analysis, this paper will give suggestions for the control of the herding effect in unsafe behavior and provide theoretical support for the phenomenon of group unsafe behavior in safe production.