中国的粮食生产力革命——1953—2003年中国主要粮食作物全要素生产率增长及其对产出的贡献

1953—2003年中国主要粮食的TFP都实现了正向增长,但呈现出明显的波动性特征。以1979年为分界点,中国主要粮食产出增长的源泉经历了一场以投入增加为主向以全要素生产率增长为主的粮食生产力革命。1997年以来中国主要粮食产出增长下降的主要原因是投入要素的下降。从政策角度看,一方面,中国未来要养活自己还主要依赖于粮食生产率的提高,这需要进行一些政策改革以挖掘生产率增长的潜力;另一方面,要提高种粮的收益,建立起可持续的粮食生产投入机制。

CHINESE REVOLUTION OF FOODSTUFFS PRODUCTIVITY

This paper estimates,using Tornqvist-Theil Index,changes in total factor productivity and their contributions to output growth,between 1953 and 2003,of the big three foodstuffs—rice,wheat,and corn.It finds that those TFP grow positively but fluctuate obviously.With the year 1979 as a dividing line,a revolution of Sources of Chinese foodstuffs growth is seen from increasing the inputs into improving TFP.Since 1997,decrease in foodstuffs output growth results from the decrease in inputs.For policy recommendation,it argues that China has to rely on improving the productivities of foodstuffs,and increase the returns of supply and establish the sustainable mechanism of foodstuffs inputs.