迎接第三次工业革命的关键 在于发展模式的革命 ——我国光伏产业和机器人产业的案例研究与反思

按照演化经济学家佩蕾丝有关经济追赶的两种机会窗口理论，“第一种机会窗口”不可能存在追赶机会。但是，由于产品内分工和全球价值链的发展，“第一种机会窗口”在战略性新兴产业中也大量地出现了，那么，这是否有追赶成功的可能呢？本文通过对我国光伏产业和机器人产业的案例研究，认为我国光伏产业和机器人产业的发展模式无法承担起迎接第三次工业革命的历史重任，其根本原因就在于我国在战略性新兴产业上仍然试图通过“第一种机会窗口”即继续沿袭劳动力成本低廉的比较优势应对新工业革命。为了抓住第三次工业革命的“第二种机会窗口”，我国战略性新兴产业的发展模式亟须重大变革。

THE NEW DEVELOPMENT MODE OF THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION——A Case Study on China's Solar PV and Robotics Industries

According to Perez's theory of windows of opportunity，there is no opportunity to catch up in technology in the first window of opportunityHowever，with the development of intra-product specialization and global value chains，the first window of opportunity appears frequently among strategic emerging industriesThis paper explored that China's solar PV and robotics industries could not meet the third industrial revolutionThe strategic emerging industries in China failed to develop through the first window of opportunity，which based on the comparative advantage in labor cost