中国区域金融发展差异的解释——基于劳动分工理论与Shapley值分解方法

中国区域金融运行严重失衡,对中国经济金融发展造成了不利影响。本文建立了一个基于劳动分工理论的、涵盖教育和创新的金融发展模型,并运用1992—2004年的省际面板数据估计出区域金融发展的协整方程。然后以协整方程为基础运用夏普里值(Shapley value)分解法对中国区域金融发展差异进行分解。研究发现,区域金融发展水平和商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、地区人均受教育年限、社会福利水平之间具有稳定的协整关系。分解结果显示,各省市区之间经济地理条件和国家制度倾斜等方面的差异是形成区域金融发展差异的主要原因,其平均贡献率为39.78%;由于先行优势和试点效应,在金融改革活跃时期,这种影响更加显著。人均受教育年限是区域金融发展差异的第二大贡献因素,其平均贡献率为36.23%。商品交易效率与金融交易效率对区域金融发展差异也具有重要贡献,其平均贡献率分别为13.08%和8.96%。

Study on the Disparities of Regional Financial Development in China:Based on the Theory of Division of Labor and Decomposition Method of Shapley Value

This paper has established a model of financial development based on the theory of division of labor and estimated a cointegration equation based on the inter-provincial panel data from 1992 to 2004. And then the inequality of regional financial development is decomposed by Shapley value decomposition method. It is found that the disparities of regional financial development is mainly due to the different conditions of economy, locations and policies of central government which contribution average rate is 39.78%,because of the first advantage and effect of the pilot, the more active period in the reform of finance, the more significant impact. The average years of education is the second largest contributor to the regional financial disparities which contribution average rate is 36.23%.The transaction efficiency of commodity and the efficiency of financial transactions are also important contributors to regional financial disparities.