温和通货膨胀下的货币政策选择

2003年以来,我国摆脱了通货紧缩的阴影,进入了一个温和的通货膨胀时期.这一轮温和的通货膨胀主要源于货币信贷的过快增长,而基础货币投放过多主要源于外汇占款的快速增长.实证研究表明,我国通货膨胀率与M0、M1、M2以及贷款增长率之间都存在正相关关系.缓解和释放通货膨胀压力既需要运用数量型货币政策工具,更需要运用价格型货币政策工具.为了缓解通货膨胀压力,中国人民银行应该实行"双升"的货币政策,在调升人民币利率水平的同时调整人民币汇率,既升息又升值,但升息和升值的幅度不宜过大.

Choices of Monetary Policy under China's Moderate Inflation

China has got rid of the shadow of deflation and has experienced a period of moderate inflation since 2003.The moderate inflation was due to rapid growth of money and credit. Because the People's Bank of China purchased a lot of US dollars, monetary base grew quickly. By empirical study, this paper indicates that there are positive relationships among inflation, M0, M1, M2 and the growth rate of loan. In order to control inflation, it is necessary to use both quantitative monetary policy instruments and price monetary policy instruments. The People's Bank of China should choose the monetary policy of "double increasing", which should include raising interest rate as well as adjusting foreign exchange rate of RMB to an appropriate degree.