货币冲击的动态效果

基于一个发展了的允许货币冲击存在短期真实效应的货币数量论框架,以及以此为基础的结构性向量自回归模型(SVAR)来考察货币冲击对我国一般价格水平和实际产出的动态效果的理论和经验分析结果表明,货币冲击在长期内是中性的,但对短期产出水平具有真实效应。不过,与实际冲击的作用比较起来,货币冲击对于解释我国实际变量的波动并不重要;然而,货币冲击能够解释一般价格水平变化的实质性部分。数量历史分析还显示,货币冲击能够很好地解释我国一般价格水平变化的时间轨迹以及历史上发生的通货膨胀和通货紧缩。

On the Dynamic Impact of the Currency

Based on a developed framework of currency amount permitting real currency impact in the short term, this paper explores and analyzes the currency impact on China's general price level and the real output both theoretically and empirically in the light of the structural SVAR model set on the framework. The finding of such a research shows that the currency impact is neutral in the long term and has real effect on the output level in the short term. However, compared with the real impact, the currency impact is not significant in accounting for China's real economic fluctuation. Nevertheless, the currency impact can account for the substantial change in China's price level. A diachronic study of quantity data indicates that the currency impact canserve to explain the pattern of China's general price level change through time as well as the pastoccurrences of inflation and deflation.