| 四川省人口-耕地-粮食系统平衡研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王振健,邓良基,夏建国.四川省人口-耕地-粮食系统平衡研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2002,19(1):19-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王振健 邓良基 夏建国 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川农业大学,四川,雅安,625014 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省教育厅科研项目，四川省科技厅重点科技项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以分析四川省人口、耕地、粮食系统的现状为基础,选用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型,对2010年四川省的人口、耕地、粮食进行预测。结果表明:2010年,人口将达到8989.6×104人,耕地减少到423.42×104hm2,人均粮食496.9kg,基本实现小康水平,并根据预测结果提出了相应的对策和措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 耕地 灰色模型 四川 土地利用 坡耕地 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4210(2002)01-19-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年7月26日 |
A Study of Population-Farmland-Grain System Balance of Sichuan Province |
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| WANG Zhen jian,DENG Liang ji,XIA Jian guo.A Study of Population-Farmland-Grain System Balance of Sichuan Province[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2002,19(1):19-22. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhen jian DENG Liang ji XIA Jian guo |
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| Abstract: | Based on an analysis of the current situation of population, farmland and grain of Sichuan Province, this paper, by applying GM(1,1) model of the gray theory, predicts the development of population, farmland and grain of the province by 2010. The prediction shows that by 2010 population will reach 8989.6 ( 104 , that farmland will be reduced to 423.43 ( 104 hm2, and that per capita foodstuff will rise to 496.9kg, approximately reaching a well-to-do standard of living. Corresponding countermeasures and measures are posed in the paper on the basis of the prediction. |
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| Keywords: | population farmland grain gray models Sichuan Province |
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