房价与地价的动态调整关系

研究目的:探讨地价与房价间的动态调整关系,为政府决策提供支持。研究方法:门限协整理论,EGARCH模型和实证分析法。研究结果:(1)房价和地价呈正相关;(2)地价变化是房价变化的Granger原因,地价和房价之间存在协整关系;(3)地价与房价在偏离均衡时其调整回归系数是非对称的。研究结论:购房者、开发商对利空利好消息的反应差异和中央与地方的利益博弈及各相关利益机构对房地产政策"选择性执行"是非对称性调整现象产生的原因,提出改进土地拍卖制度、平衡中央地方财力、优化政绩考核标准、强化对地方执行各项房地产政策的监管等建议。

Research on the Dynamic Adjustment Relationship Between Housing Price and Land Price

The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic adjustment relationship between housing price and land price in order to provide supports for the policy-making decisions of government. Methods employed include threshold co-integration theory, EGARCH Model and empirical analysis. The results indicate that：（1）the housing price is positively correlated with the land price;（2）the land price variation is the Granger-cause for housing price variation, and there is the co-integration relationship between land price and housing price;（3）the adjusted regression coefficients of the land price and housing price are asymmetric when they are deviating from the equilibrium. It is concluded that the different reactions of the house buyers and the property developers with the“bear news” and “bull news” in the housing market, the benefit game between the central and local governments, and the so-called selectively implementing real estate polices by the relevant interest groups are the causes of asymmetry adjustment. Lastly, several policy suggestions have been put forward, including the improvement of land auction system, balancing of the financial resources between the central and local governments, optimization of the standards of performance assessment for officials on different levels, and the enhancement of monitoring the implementation of real estate policies of local governments, etc.