人民币汇率变动的货币供给效应及其传递机制研究

人民币汇率的变动会影响中国的国际收支,进而对人民币供给形成冲击,即产生人民币汇率的货币供给效应。本文从静态和动态两个层面对人民币汇率的货币供给效应强度及其传递效果进行实证研究。结果表明,人民币汇率变动具有比较稳定的货币供给效应,这一效应随着人民币汇率弹性的增大而有所增强;从传递效果来看,人民币汇率对国际收支的作用效力较弱,而国际收支与货币供给的关联性很强,说明人民币汇率的货币供给效应在人民币汇率作用于国际收支这一传递环节发生了较大减损。为控制人民币汇率变动对货币供给的不利扰动,近期首先要加强对资本流入的监管,增强人民币汇率变动对国际收支影响的预期的准确性和可控性;其次是推进中国的外汇储备形成机制改革,切断或弱化国际收支影响货币供给的传递路径。从长远来看,要增强人民币汇率的调节作用,促进国际收支平衡。

Empirical Study on Money Supply Effect of RMB Exchange Rate in China and Its Transmission Mechanism

The fluctuation of exchange rate will influence China’s balance of payments,and also impact the money supply,which is the money supply effect of exchange rate.From the static and dynamic aspects,this paper makes empirical analyses on the intensity and transmission impact of money supply effect.The paper shows that:the exchange rate has a relatively stable effect on money supply,which will improve with the enhancing flexibility of exchange rate.From the transmission impact,the influence of exchange rate on China’s balance of payments is not significant.While there is a high correlation between the balance of payment and money supply,we argue that in the process of exchange rate’ action on balance of payments,the money supply effect has been greatly impaired.To control the adverse turbulence of exchange rate fluctuation on money supply,in the near future,we should firstly strengthen the supervision of capital inflows,and enhance the accuracy and controllability of the anticipation about the exchange rate fluctuation on China’s balance of payments.We should secondly advance the reform of foreign exchange reserve formation mechanism,cut off or impair the transmission path of balance of payments’ influence on money supply.In the long run,we should strengthen the adjustment role of RMB exchange rate and promote the balance of international payments.