区域性金融风险预警的神经网络模型研究

牢守不发生系统性、区域性风险底线是金融稳定和金融监测、预警的重要任务。区域性金融风险预警的关键是合理选择风险指标。区域性金融风险指标选择既要考虑金融风险因素的普遍性,更要考虑金融发展的区域性,充分体现本地区金融发展的阶段性特征。结合广东发展的特点,选取反映区域性金融风险指标,利用因子分析法找出风险主要因子,并用神经网络进行风险预测预警,为防范区域性金融风险提供数量性决策依据。

Study on the Warning Model of Regional Financial Risk

To prison not systemic and regional risks is an important task of financial stability and financial monitoring, early warning. The key regional early warning financial risk is to choose a reasonable risk index. Financial risk index of regional choice should not only consider the general financial risk factors, but also consider the regional financial development, fully embodies the characteristics of financial development in the region of the stage. In this paper, combined with the characteristics of Guangdong development, selected to reflect financial risk index of regional, analysis to find the main factors by factor of risk, and risk prediction by neural network, in order to provide quantitative basis for decision-making to prevent regional financial risk.